July corn was trading 4 3/4 cents lower late in the overnight session. China futures were closed for holiday. Outside market forces look slightly positive today with a weak tone to the dollar and quiet trade for metal and energy markets. There were no deliveries on 2nd notice day for May corn this morning. The fast start to the planting season and the forecast for warm and wet weather for the next few weeks is seen as a bearish force and opens the door for a very large crop for the coming year. This news continues to clash with the aggressive buying from China for US corn and fears that a sub-par corn crop in China this year could spark a surge in import demand from China and quickly wipe-out projected higher ending stocks for the 2012/13 season. The USDA will be in a position to lower old crop ending stocks in next weeks supply/demand update and will give the first look for the 2012/13 season. The weekly Corn Planting report showed that 53% of the crop is planted which is 10% above trade expectations. This compares with 28% last week and 12% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 35%. The highest percent complete was 60% in 2010. Iowa is now 50% complete from 9% last week. Illinois is 79% planted and 34% emerged to push emergence to 15% nationwide from 6% on average. There was more talk from China that the quality issues have been resolved and that China will be able to purchase Argentina corn this year. Argentina corn is currently cheaper than US corn. July corn managed to close sharply higher on the session yesterday after first absorbing bearish news from outside market forces. A negative tilt to the weather and ideas that the rally Friday was a bit overdone helped to spark some early selling buy buying emerged in old crop months to support. The market saw the highest close since April 9th. Fears of a high yield and a sharp increase in stocks continues to hold December corn steady in recent weeks despite the surge in buying from China. There are several rain events in the forecast for the next few weeks but not enough to cause significant delays and traders see a lack of frost issues and warm weather into the middle of this week as factors to support early growth. South Korea is in the market for 195,000 tonnes of optional origin corn for November delivery and also 70,000 tonnes of optional origin corn for October delivery. Israel is in the market for 35,000 tonnes of optional origin corn. Weekly export inspections came in at 24.9 million bushels which was well below trade expectations and compares with 31.2 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection.
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