July corn was trading 1 1/2 cents lower into 7:30 AM central time. Outside market forces look positive today with a weaker US dollar and some strength in other commodity markets and global equity markets. Weather could have become a critical force this week to spark potential tightness this year but a colder and wetter forecast for much of this week should help ease crop condition concerns. Areas of the southern Midwest and northern delta may pollinate soon so a good amount of rain this week should help ease stress. Rains in Iowa over the weekend were active and should stabilize conditions. The weekly update this afternoon could show stressful conditions for the week last week and a 2-4% drop in crops rated good to excellent. Rain is now critical for all of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio this week and rain and cooler weather is now in the forecast with most areas expected to get 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches. Much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio have see warm weather, high winds and no rain for the past week or more, and topsoil ratings are dry. Slow old crop export news and weak cash basis levels at river locations on Friday helped to limit the advance. Cheaper corn in Brazil has helped to ease tightness in the US cash market as well. Traders are fearful of possible long liquidation selling from funds out of the July contract this week as large funds roll out of old crop corn soon. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its estimate for production to just 19.3 million tonnes from 21.5 million as the USDA forecast. While the US weather is a negative force this week, traders remain concerned with a dry start to some areas of China and China weather could carry significant weight this year. The Commitments of Traders reports as of May 22nd showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 154,630 contracts, an increase of 28,476 contracts for the week and the buying trend is seen as a short-term positive force. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 20,595 contracts. These traders have gone from a net short to a net long position. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 401,419 contracts, down 6,444 for the week.