July corn was trading 7 1/4 cents higher late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look negative today with weakness in global equities, weakness in metal and energy markets and a firm US dollar. There were no deliveries this morning and none so far this month. The short-term focus of the market remains on favorable weather and potential long liquidation selling ahead of the USDA reports on Thursday but a very strong cash market and ideas that China may be a buyer of corn on the current set-back has helped to support. For US ending stocks for the 2011/12 season, traders see stocks near 750 million bushels as compared with 801 million posted in the April update. For the 2012/13 season, traders see ending stocks near 1.71 billion bushels but with a range of near 1.2 billion to well above 2 billion bushels. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season are expected to drop to near 122 million tonnes from 122.71 million last month. Stocks for the new crop season are expected to recovery to near 137 million tonnes. The weekly Corn Planting report showed that 71% of the crop is planted compared to 53% last week and 32% last year. This was well above expectations for 67% complete. The 10 year average for this time of year is 55%. The highest percent complete was 75% in 2010. South Dakota is 57% complete vs. the 10-year average of 32% and Nebraska is 74% complete vs. 54%. Corn is 32% emerged from 13% on average. July corn closed just 1/4 of a cent lower yesterday but well up from the early lows. May corn pushed sharply higher overnight matching the March highs and up near the highest level since November. Strong cash markets continue to help support with historically high basis bids, record wide May/July inversion and a lack of deliveries against the May contract helping to support. Ideas that the weather outlook is favorable and that the USDA will release high production, yield and ending stocks estimates in their first supply/demand update for the 2012/13 season on Thursday morning helped to pressure the market early yesterday and also helped to push December corn down to match Friday's lows at 515. December corn closed higher on the day, however, and there is talk that too much rain in central Illinois might force replanting due to ponding issues. Weekly export inspections came in at 29.3 million bushels which was about as expected and this compares with 31.2 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. South Korea passed on a tender to buy 55,000 tonnes of corn at a tender indicating prices were too high.
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