November soybeans were up 14 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.5% overnight, and palm oil in Malaysia was up 1.5%. Equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally stronger overnight, and early indications are that US equity markets will open with substantial gains. The US Dollar is weaker against most of the major currencies this morning. The Spanish Prime Minister stated that there was no current proposal to expand the Euro zone bailout fund to 2 trillion Euros, but that didn't seem to dent optimism in many markets. The Greek Prime Minister said that he would guarantee that his nation would meet all commitments to receive further bailout funds from the IMF, EU and ECB. A private survey of German Consumer Sentiment during September was 5.2, higher than market expectations. Euro zone money growth during August was 2.8%, higher than forecasts. Major US economic numbers, to be released this morning, include a private survey of US Home Sales at 8:00, a private survey of US Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM, and private surveys of store sales released during the session. The surge higher in energy markets adds to the positive tone. Outside market forces are strong, and traders view the market as short-term oversold after a $2.39 break (16.3%) in just 17 trading sessions. Traders are now positioning for the September 30th Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which will set the beginning stocks total for the 2011/12 crop season. The recent price break suggests that the market has already priced in a negative report. Slow demand in the summer due to ample supply from South America may have limited US usage, and as a result, traders believe there could be an adjustment higher in stocks. The weekly Crop Progress report showed that only 5% of US soybean crop was harvested as of Sunday, compared to 15% last year and the 10 year average of 13%. Traders expected harvest to be 10-15% complete. The report also showed that 53% of the crop was rated good/excellent, unchanged from last week and compared with 63% last year. Ukraine is expected to have record sunoil production this year due to a bumper harvest. India meal exports are also expected to jump about 20% to 5 million tonnes due to large soybean production this year, nearly 11 million tonnes. November soybeans closed slightly higher on the session yesterday but up 33 3/4 cents off of the lows. Choppy and weak outside market forces plus expectations for increased harvest pressures this week helped to spark the early selling pressures. However, the strong recovery in the corn market and strength in wheat helped to pull the market higher on the day. A strong recovery in the US stock market and a push higher on the day for energy markets after the early weakness added to the positive tone. These factors were strong again overnight to support the sharply higher trade. Talk of the oversold technical condition of the market was also seen as a reason for support. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at just 7.4 million bushels, which was well below trade expectations and below the 28 million bushel average needed each week to reach the USDA projection. Friday's COT report showed heavy selling and long liquidation for the second week in a row, which was further evidence of an oversold condition. December meal closed slightly higher yesterda, but December oil closed lower for the sixth session in a row.
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