November soybeans were up 13 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.5% overnight. Palm oil futures in Malaysia closed up 0.3%. While equity markets in Asia were generally higher during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe were generally weaker this morning. Early indications are that US equity markets will open with moderate losses. The US Dollar is stronger against most of the major currencies. Slovakia will vote on expanding the powers of the Euro zone rescue fund later on today. A summit of EU leaders has been delayed until October 23rd in order to develop additional plans to deal with Euro zone sovereign debt problems. UK Industrial Production during August was up 0.2%, higher than expectations. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include private surveys of store sales released during the session. European leaders have pledged to help clear up the euro zone debt crises, and this has helped relieve pressure from many commodity markets over fears of double dip recession in the US and a weakening trend to the global economy. Soybeans have found some support from talk of the oversold condition going into key reports on Wednesday morning and a positive tilt to cash markets in the US plus talk of strong margins for China crushers. Palm oil was higher overnight, and traders see strong vegetable oil demand from India for September as a positive force. Basis levels in the northern and western Corn Belt jumped sharply since last week, as producer selling has been very light for this time of the year after the $3.00 break recently and producers are at work in the fields. November soybeans posted highs early in the session yesterday and inched lower for much of the session to close moderately higher on the day. The market saw aggressive buying from fund traders and speculators early in the session to drive the market to the highest level since September 30th. A very sharp break in the US dollar and strong commodity markets in general lent support. Ideas that France and Germany will come up with a plan soon to help control the Euro-zone debt issues helped spark the aggressive buying in agricultural, metal and energy markets. The upside may have been limited by talk of nearly ideal weather to see advancing harvest progress. In addition, rains in Argentina and Brazil helped ease dryness fears recently. Traders see harvest near 35-40% complete as of Sunday, compared with 19% last week. Weekly export inspections will also be released today. Early last week there were significant concerns that there would be a sharp increase in yield for the USDA production report, but reports of low moisture soybean harvest in the past week has eased concerns for a sharp adjustment higher. The COT reports on Friday showed an aggressive long liquidation selling trend from fund traders, and this may have helped limit the advance as well. Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA reports for Wednesday morning. Sluggish exports and higher production have caused Malaysian palm oil stocks to jump to 2.12 million tonnes in September, up 12.4% and up to the highest level since December of 2009. Traders see higher yield and weaker demand numbers for the USDA reports, which is expected to push ending stocks higher from 165 million bushels posted in the September report. Many traders expect ending stocks near 185 million, as yield is expected to jump to near 42 bu/acre from 41.8 million last month.
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