January soybeans were trading 19 1/2 cents higher late in the overnight session. China futures were down 0.2% overnight, while palm oil futures in Malaysia closed up 0.6%. Equity markets in Asia and Europe were lower overnight, but the US market looks to open higher this morning. Ideas that China may ease monetary policy helped to support agricultural and commodity markets. The US Dollar is slightly lower against most of the major currencies. EU leaders have agreed not to give Greece any further Euro zone rescue aid until that nation approves a referendum on their current bailout plan. The European Central Bank will meet today and will announce any changes to Euro zone monetary policy at 7:45 AM. A private survey of UK Service Industries during October was at 51.3, lower than market expectations. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include Weekly Jobless Claims and third quarter Non-Farm Productivity at 7:30 AM, and September Factory Orders and a private survey of US non-Manufacturing industries at 9:00 AM. November soybean deliveries totaled 9 contracts this morning with a 4-day total of 1,814. Grain markets and soybeans were trading lower overnight, but a hint of a monetary policy shift in China was enough to turn the markets higher, with gold and crude oil turning from lower to higher on the day as well. South America weather remains supportive to a good start to the crops. Brazil looks dry through the weekend, but Argentina's growing areas look to receive a good rain event. January soybeans closed near unchanged on the session yesterday with an inside trading session. The market saw some early strong gains, but the setback in corn values and the inability of the soybean market to push over Tuesday's highs helped trigger the sell-off to just slightly higher on the day into the mid-session. A supportive tone to outside market forces and rumors that China had purchased 2-4 cargoes of US soybeans and light producer selling in the US were all seen as positive forces. While traders see demand from China seasonally rising at this time of the year, recent weak export demand, poor crush margins in the US and China and a lack of buying of US soybeans from Europe are all seen as negative forces. Private estimates for the USDA Crop Production report on Tuesday and yesterday were higher than last month's USDA forecast, and this added to the weaker tone for the market. Egypt is tendering to buy 30,000-40,000 tonnes of soyoil. Commercial hatcheries in the US set 186 million eggs into incubators for the week ending October 29th, which was down 7% from last year. For the past six weeks, egg settings have been down 7-9% from last year, and this should push poultry supply lower into early next year and may keep meal demand sluggish. Traders seem to be looking for a slight increase in yield for next week's production report of about 0.5 bushel per acre. If so, and exports are also revised lower by 25 million bushels due to recent weak sales news, ending stocks could jump to near 220 million bushels, with 160 million last month and 215 million last year. If yield is normal next year and there are 2 million more acres planted, ending stocks could swell to 400 million bushels, a six year high.
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