January soybeans were trading 4 cents lower late in the overnight session but traded as much as 10 3/4 lower early. China futures were down 0.9%, and traders indicated that comments from the Chinese Premier that the government would continue to try to cool the property market helped to pressure. While equity markets in Asia were mixed during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe are generally lower this morning. Early indications are that US equity markets will open lower. The US Dollar is stronger against most of the major currencies this morning, although posting a small loss versus the Yen. The Greek Prime Minister and opposition leaders agreed on the formation of a new caretaker government, with a new head of state expected to be chosen today. A private survey of UK housing prices during October was up 1.2%, higher than market forecasts. Euro zone Retail Sales during September were down 0.7%, weaker than expectations. The only major US economic number to be released today will be a September US Consumer Credit reading at 2:00 PM. November soybean deliveries totaled 261 overnight as compared with just 7 contracts on Friday. Outside forces appear somewhat weak this morning, but a strong recovery from overnight lows for gold and energy markets is an offset to the equity market weakness. Traders see soybean weekly updates for crop progress showing harvest near 95% complete. Ideas that China will be restocking vegetable oils and soybeans has provided underlying support. Positioning ahead of the USDA report for Wednesday morning may keep the trade choppy today. Traders see yield near unchanged from last month's report, but due to a lower export outlook, ending stocks are expected to increase by 20-25 million bushels from last month's estimate of 160 million bushels. World ending stocks may also inch higher as traders see higher production for Brazil. Weather in South America looks favorable for crop development, which is seen as a negative force. Ukraine officials indicated that losses from severe dryness could be near 30% for the 2012 winter crops, which might be considered a longer-term supportive force for soybean oil. Black Sea region oils helped to pressure the vegetable oil markets this year. The Commitments of Traders reports as of November 1st showed non-commercial traders were net long 53,139 soybean contracts, down 10,438 contracts for the week. The selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 161,785 contracts, up 5,648 for the week, and this helped to offset the non-commercial selling. For meal, non-commercial traders were net short 19,176 contracts, an increase of 4,419 contracts for the week. Fund traders building a larger net short is seen as a bearish trend. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net short position of 15,861 contracts, up 3,398 for the week. For soybean oil, Non-Commercial traders were net short 16,616 contracts, an increase of 2,264 for the week. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 79,076 contracts, down 1,330 for the week. January soybeans closed 6 1/4 cents lower on the session Friday and managed to close down 5 cents for the week. A bearish tilt to outside market forces, uncertainty over the financial condition of Europe and a lack of supportive news on the US economy helped spark the early setback, but the market was well supported on the early break to trade just slightly lower on the day into the mid-session. Indications that China may be restocking soybeans and soybean oil helped to support. Palm oil pushed to near 7-week highs, and this also helped support, while November soybean deliveries were light. Deliveries jumped to 261 contracts this morning. The Brazil crop is expected to be well over 50% planted.
Join the Discussion