January soybeans were up 15 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were down 0.6%, coming off of 5-month highs. Equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally lower during overnight trading, so US equity markets are expected to open with moderate losses. The US Dollar is stronger against most of the major currencies this morning, although posting a loss versus the Yen. German GDP during the third quarter was up 2.5% year-on-year, in-line with forecasts. UK CPI during October was up 5.0% year-on-year, lower than expectations. A private survey of German economic sentiment during November was -55.2, weaker than forecasts. Euro zone GDP during the third quarter was up 1.4% year-on-year, in-line with estimates. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include the October Producer Price Index, October Retail Sales, and the New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing survey at 7;30 AM, September Business Inventories at 9:00 AM, and private surveys of store sales will also be released during the session. November soybean deliveries totaled 275, pushing the total for the month to 3,765. The market saw solid gains overnight even with a stronger US dollar and weakness in outside markets. A general perception that China may be a much larger importer for the coming year after reports yesterday of China commercial traders looking for 58-61 million tonnes in imports as compared with 56.5 million as the USDA forecast helped to support soybeans relative to the other grains and the buying continued overnight. The weekly Crop Progress report showed that 96% of the US soybean crop was harvested as of Sunday, compared to 92% last week and 99% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 93%. The Commitments of Traders reports as of November 8th for soybeans showed non-commercial traders were net long 46,916 contracts, a decrease of 6,223 contracts in just one week. The selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. For soybean meal, non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net short position of 18,357 contracts, up 2,496 contracts for the week. That short-covering trend is seen as somewhat positive. For soybean oil, non-commercial traders were net short 10,358 contracts, a decrease of 6,258 contracts, and the short-covering trend is seen as a positive force. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net short position of 14,136 contracts, down 6,480 for the week. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 82,764 contracts, up 3,688. January soybeans closed slightly higher on the session yesterday but nearly 10 cents off of the early peak. Ideas that China still has interest in booking US soybeans plus more talk that the break last week after the USDA report may have been overdone helped to support. The market managed to bounce despite the weakness in outside market forces with a firm US dollar and weakness in energy and metal markets. The NOPA crush showed disappointing demand, as soybeans crushed for the month of October came in at 141.179 million bushels which was about 1 million below trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.876 billion pounds from 1.95 billion last month and 2.82 billion last year. Weekly export inspections came in at 53.5 million bushels which was well above trade expectations and above the 23.9 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. China accounted for 35.2 million bushels of the total for the week. Cumulative shipments, however, have reached just 23.6% of the forecast for the season as compared with 27.1% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. Argentina weather looks dry this week, but with more rain in the forecast next week, traders see this as a chance to finish any plantings. Active rain totals have been reported across Brazil, which is seen as a negative factor.
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