May soybeans were trading up 3 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures closed 0.4% lower overnight and palm oil futures in Malaysia closed 0.7% higher overnight. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight, with Hong Kong lower and Shanghai managing its 5th straight higher close. European equity markets started off higher and were given an added boost by a stronger than expected German economic data. Some European markets were put off balance in the wake of talk that Euro zone growth was probably going to continue to contract. The US equity markets are showing a slightly higher early track today. The view toward the Euro zone is mostly positive, and somehow the US markets have managed to spin recent US data into a positive. There is a rather active flow of US scheduled data today and the main release might be US Initial Claims, which are expected to post a minor rise. The weaker US dollar is a plus this morning but outside market forces are mostly neutral. Traders await supply/demand news from the Outlook Forum today and tomorrow which will be the first USDA outlook for the 2012/13 season. Ideas that US export demand will remain strong well into the 2012/13 season due to tightening supply from South America suggests a tightening of US ending stocks for the new crop season. The weather forecast has dried up for the southern Brazil region and this may provide some underlying support as traders had hoped for good rains this week to help stabilize crop losses. Wet weather is expected to continue in central and northern Brazil and this could keep harvest slow. May soybeans closed slightly higher on the session yesterday but up about 11 cents from the lows. Talk of a drier forecast for southern Brazil plus a more inflationary tone to commodity markets in general helped to support. The market pushed lower on the session early with talk that the rally Tuesday was a bit overdone. A turn higher in the US dollar plus some weakness in equity and silver markets helped to provide some outside market pressure. Talk of a set-back in the Brazil soybean basis and ideas that weather in South America is improving was also seen as a slightly negative force. The USDA confirmed a sale of 175,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2012/13 season. Strength in the other grain markets and ideas that China will continue to be an aggressive buyer on the world market ahead helped to support.
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