July soybeans were trading 11 1/4 cents lower late in the overnight session. China futures were closed today for holiday. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were also closed. Some equity markets in Asia remained closed for holiday, but the Australia market was stronger off rate cut news while the Nikkei actually forged a fresh 2 1/2 month low close. European markets were propped up by a slightly higher start in the FTSE, but May Day celebrations might have reduced regional activity somewhat. US stock markets were showing a mixed early trade, with the focus shifting back to a rather active US scheduled report slate later today. The markets will also see a series of US Fed Speeches today and given the increased focus on the prospect of easing, the trade will be parsing Fed dialogue rather extensively today. There were 757 deliveries against May soybeans this morning as compared with 752 yesterday. Oil deliveries this morning were 2,635 as compared with 3392 contracts yesterday. There were no meal deliveries for the second day in a row. Talk of the overbought condition of the market and continued deliveries against the May contract helped to pressure the market overnight. November soybeans were down just 3 cents late in the overnight session. Traders are beginning to position for next week's USDA supply/demand report which is expected to show a significant tightening of 2011/12 ending stocks due to higher exports and increasing crush. Many traders have ending stocks down to 150-175 million bushels from 250 million last month and 275 million in March. This will be the first look at the 2012/13 season and if beginning stocks for the 2012/13 season slip to 150 million bushels, the USDA task of balancing the surge in demand for US soybeans and production for the new crop season with a set planted acreage number from the March intentions report will be very difficult. Traders will assume that sharply higher prices will be necessary to reduce demand. The weekly Soybeans Planting report showed that a record 12% of the crop is planted which is right on trade expectations. This compares with 6% last week and 2% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 5%. The previous highest percent complete was 9% in 2006 while the lowest was 2% in 2011. The soybean market saw choppy trade yesterday as soybean oil pushed sharply lower and soybean meal saw strong gains and active new buying. Rumors that the EU will eventually block imports of Argentina bio-fuel helped to drive oil lower. News of more sales to China and a firm tone for corn helped to support the market late in the day. Private exporters reported the sale of 220,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2012/13 season. The weekend COT report showed a record high net long position for speculators in soybeans and meal and this added to the overbought condition ideas and helped spark some long liquidation (profit-taking) selling early in the session. Weekly export inspections came in at 15.45 million bushels which was well below trade expectations and compares with 11 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. July meal pushed to a new high for the move with active buying late in the day while July oil pushed down to the lowest level since March 30th.
Join the Discussion