July soybeans were trading 2 1/4 cents higher late in the overnight session. China futures closed slightly higher finding support from a jump in rapeseed. Palm oil futures in Malaysia closed up 0.7% overnight. Chinese equity markets were weaker off lingering concerns toward their property and development sectors. The Nikkei managed to recover from a 3 month low, but investors and traders there are still worried about the potential negative impacts from the latest developments in the Euro zone. European equity markets were also under initial pressure again today, as trade fears have now turned back toward Greece and away from France. Early action in the US equity markets showed noted weakness again as the fear of global slowing and the potential knock-on impacts from the Euro zone remain on the front burner. There were no deliveries against May soybeans this morning leaving the total this month at 2,154. Oil deliveries this morning were 1,017 contracts. There were no meal deliveries and still none for the month. A negative tilt to outside market forces and positioning ahead of the USDA Supply/demand update on Thursday could keep the trade choppy in the near-term. Focus will be on the new crop US ending stocks and the continued adjustment lower in South American production. Traders see Argentina production down to near 42 million tonnes from 45 million last month and Brazil production near 64.5 million tonnes from 66 million last month. As a result, world ending stocks for the 2011/12 season are expected to drop to near 53.3 million tonnes from 55.52 million last month. Stocks for the new crop season are expected to recovery to near 59.3 million tonnes. For US ending stocks for the 2011/12 season, traders see stocks near 215 million bushels as compared with 250 million posted in the April update. For the 2012/13 season, traders see ending stocks near 165 million bushels but with a range of near 90 to as high as 250 million bushels. The weekly soybean planting report showed that 24% of the crop was planted as compared with trade expectations of 22% and this compares with 12% last week and 6% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 14%. The highest percent complete was 44% in 1998. July soybeans closed moderately lower on the session yesterday and did not recover as much as wheat and corn late in the session. A bearish tone to outside market forces plus a continued favorable weather outlook helped to spark the early selling pressures. However, even when outside market forces turned less negative, (set-back in the US dollar and a recovery in equity markets), July soybeans pushed to a new low for the session into the mid-day. News that the fund traders and combined speculator net long positions in the COT report as of May 1st showed a record high net long position helped to keep the tone bearish on thoughts that the market remains overbought. Private exporters reported the sale of 110,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destination for the 2011/12 season. Weekly export inspections came in at 9.99 million bushels which was well under trade expectations near 15 million and this compares with 11 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Canola stocks in Canada on March 31st fell to a 7-year low at 4.3 million tonnes which was at the low end of expectations and compares with 6.2 million tonnes last year.
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