July soybeans were trading 15 cents higher near 7:30 cst and traded as much as 20 higher overnight. China futures closed up 0.6% and Palm oil futures in Malaysia closed 1.7% higher. Chinese shares were under pressure again overnight with more evidence of an extending slowing pattern in Chinese manufacturing seen in the headlines. European equity markets were also showing renewed weakness early this morning in the wake of softer data and that has increased uncertainty and anxiety in that region. However, the European stocks did manage a recovery and that seemed to suggest that some easing effort might be forth coming from the ECB. There also seems to be a growing sense in the markets that a Greek exit from the Euro zone might not be a total disaster, but seeing a distinct softening of the Euro zone economy probably keeps a moderate amount of anxiety in place. The US report slate today is somewhat active with Durable goods and claims likely to give the trade a solid lead on the direction of the US economy. Initial expectations call for a minor dip in durable goods and virtually no change in the weekly claims data and that in turn might be seen as evidence of an economy losing momentum. Export sales will be released at 7:30 cst with the market open and this could have some impact. Outside markets are not negative this morning for a change with gold and energy recovering and some stability in the US stock market. While the weather models are a little drier for next week, there is still some rain for much of the Midwest and this is seen as negative and could ease crusting concerns for germination. Traders remain concerned with the dry areas of Iowa, western Illinois, eastern Indiana and Ohio which have not seen any rain in the past 7-10 days and especially areas which might miss out on rain just ahead. Warm weather is still in the forecast for the long weekend but two systems of rain chances next week plus bearish macro sentiment plus a hefty spec net long in soybeans has helped to pressure. July soybeans pushed sharply lower on the session yesterday as aggressive long liquidation selling helped to pressure. Palm oil was down 2.9% yesterday and is already at a significant discount to soybean oil on the world market so this helped drive soybean oil sharply lower with July down to the lowest level since October of 2010. For weekly export sales this morning, traders see soybean sales near 1.15 million tonnes. Rumors of China canceling soybean cargoes may have added to the bearish sentiment but commercial confirmation was not seen and cash traders talked about the stronger meal basis, firm crush margins and rumors of meal receipt cancellations. A private China trade house indicated, however, that China cancelled four cargoes of Brazil soybeans. Traders see slower demand from China short-term as traders absorb recent active imports and also absorb reserve selling of 600,000 tonnes. Taiwan is tendering for 120,000 tonnes of US or South America soybeans.
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