July soybeans were trading 3 cents higher near 7:30 cst with November near unchanged. China futures closed 0.4% lower overnight while Malaysia palm oil prices were up 0.2% overnight. Mainland Chinese equities were weaker again overnight, but Hong Kong shares managed to claw out a minimal gain. European equity markets were weaker off rising yields in Italy and Spain and also because of a lack of constructive dialogue ahead of the coming EU summit. The markets also saw more evidence of slowing in the Euro zone, from a sharp decline in Italian retail sales from the prior month. The US scheduled report slate has a series of private chain store sales reports, the Case-Shiller Home price survey, a Richmond Fed business Activity index and a Consumer Confidence report. Expectations call for a decline in the 20-City Case-Shiller Home price index and a minor decline in US Consumer Confidence. A little less heat and perhaps a little more rain in the extended forecast models may have helped to spark a set-back overnight but there does not appear to be much weather news to spark aggressive selling. In fact, the forecast still looks threatening but outside market forces continue to help to limit the advance as traders are nervous over possible fund traders long liquidation selling. The Midwest weather looks hot and dry into the end of the week and then we could see 1/4 to 3/4 inches of 50% coverage with rains favoring the northern and eastern Midwest late this week and favoring the northern and western areas on the weekend. This leaves half of the Midwest plus the northern Delta region baking in the dry soils. Heat moves to the southern and western Midwest for the weekend and early next week but some models have much above normal temperatures returning to the heart of the Midwest for the 11-15 day models. November soybeans surged higher yesterday and the market managed to push to new contract highs. Afternoon weather models show a cooler and wetter pattern for the southern Midwest, beginning next Monday but this is just relative to the previous models and there is still no break in the below normal precipitation and above normal temperature outlook for the next two weeks. Confidence and accumulation for this idea is low at this point in time. Western Corn Belt regions, especially southern areas, look to turn very hot in the next two weeks with mid-90's and even 100 degree temperatures common in the week ahead. The dry conditions are making it difficult for farmers to double crop beans over harvested wheat and there were rumors of Indiana seed dealers receiving back unused seed. The weekly Soybean Conditions report showed that 53% of the crop was rated good/excellent compared to 56% last week and 65% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 65%. This is the lowest ratings for this time of the year since 18% in 1988. Indiana is rated just 24% good to excellent from 32% last week and 59% as the 20-year average and Illinois is just 35% good/excellent from 62% as the 20-year average. The USDA reported that private exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans to China. Weekly Net Export Inspections were reported below market estimates at 9.18 million bushels. Inspections need to average 12.8 million per week to reach the USDA projection for the marketing year. The June 1st stocks and planted acreage reports from the USDA are on Friday and positioning for these reports is underway. While traders are looking for a 2 million or more acre jump in planted area, poor weather for Kansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and southern Indiana suggests that the actual double-cropped acres could be less than what is reported on Friday.
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