November soybeans were trading 14 3/4 cents higher near 7:30 am cst. China futures were up 0.8% this morning and Malaysia palm oil futures pushed up 2.3% to a one-month high. Chinese stocks were mixed in the wake of the latest domestic economic measures which showed the softest PMI readings of 2012. Most stock markets in Europe were tracking slightly higher today despite the slack Chinese data from overnight and that suggests the benefit of the EU summit has at least partially lived through the weekend. However, many market participants will still be watching sovereign debt yields in Europe for a real reading on the current condition of the European debt crisis. The US scheduled report slate today will bring a US Manufacturing PMI report, Construction Spending and a Online Help wanted report that might be given added attention because of the Monthly Non-farm payroll report due out at the end of this week. There were no deliveries posted for July soybeans for the second session in a row. There were no meal deliveries and none so far with oil deliveries this morning at 2,464 contracts to bring the total this month to 4,775. While there were some violent thunderstorms over the weekend, about 2/3rds of the Midwest missed out on rain and mid to upper 90's for the Midwest this week could cause extreme stress on some of the southern Midwest and northern delta fields this week. There were 1,800 record high temperatures posted from reporting stations in 39 states this weekend with all-time records posted for Denver, Dodge City Kansas, Ft Wayne and Nashville. At Midway airport in Chicago, there was less rain for any June in 84 years; according to Tom Skilling. Some rains are expected across the northern Midwest and then down to parts of northern Indiana and into Ohio this week but crops in southern Indiana and Illinois, Missouri, southern Iowa and Nebraska may see significant deterioration in crop conditions. Soybean June 1st stocks came in at 32 million bushels above trade expectations which helped to ease old crop ending stocks concerns but the new crop outlook remains extremely tight. The weather in late July and early August will be key to the soybean outlook but the June weather was bad enough to revise yield lower. If actual yield slips to 42 bushels per acre from 43.9 as the current USDA forecast and there are no adjustments to 2012/13 demand, ending stocks slip to just 92 million bushels which is a stocks/usage ratio of 2.8%, a new record low. This is likely below pipeline minimum and would suggest further price rationing ahead. Keep in mind: if yield expectations slip to 40.8 or below, total supply would come in below the USDA usage estimate for the season. Planted acreage for soybeans came in at 76.08 million acres, which was above trade expectations for 75.5 million. Traders believe the higher acreage estimate is partially based on acres which may not get planted with dry soils in double-cropped areas of the southern Midwest. Furthermore, the market is anticipating increased international demand for U.S. soybeans after a disastrous year of production in South America. In fact, the USDA sees US demand up only about 1 million tonnes even with a drop of about 18 1/2 million tonnes in production from Brazil and Argentina. A more bullish tilt to outside market forces and the weather outlook was more than enough to offset bearish news from the USDA on Friday. The market is also seeing support on expectations that the Crop Progress report this afternoon will show another sharp drop in good to excellent ratings. The Commitments of Traders reports as of June 26th showed a general overbought condition for soybeans and meal. For Soybeans, Non-Commercial traders were net long 231,364 contracts, an increase of 14,097 contracts for the week. This is just shy of the record net long of 259,763 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long of 217,815 contracts. This is up 19,833 contracts for the week compared with the record of 220,823. For meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 90,629 contracts, an increase of 1,096 for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long of 111,278 contracts. The record high is at 128,591. For Soybean Oil, Non-Commercial traders were net short 39,673 contracts, an increase of 3,801 contracts for the week and this leaves the market oversold. Commodity Index traders held a net long of 82,643 contracts, up 1,674.
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