November soybeans were trading 11 cents higher near 7:30 am cst. China futures were up slightly this morning and Malaysia palm oil futures pushed up 1.2% to a one-month high. With the exception of the Australian equity market, Asian equities were all higher overnight off China's latest attempt (a RRR reduction) to stir their economy. European shares were also higher overnight off ideas that the ECB might be poised to reduce interest rates Thursday in an attempt to cushion the European economy against an ongoing wave of softening global activity. Overnight Euro zone May PPI showed a rather surprising decline of 0.5% and for some that stokes fears of a deflationary spiral. The US scheduled report slate today will present a US Factory orders report, US auto sales figures and a New York ISM Business Index reading. The trade expects a minimal gain in auto sales and also from the Factory orders data but those reports aren't likely to markedly improve overall sentiment. There were no deliveries posted for July soybeans for the third session in a row. There were no meal deliveries and none so far with oil deliveries this morning at 2,716 contracts to bring the total this month to 7,491. The surge to a new contract high overnight was led by a continued collapse in crop conditions and ideas that we could see more of the same next Monday after the market absorbs another four days of high temperatures and limited rainfall for the central and eastern Corn Belt. Ideas that the soybean conditions could still see significant improvement if there is a shift to better weather for the mid-July to mid-August time frame helped to limit the advance. Signs of continued strong demand from China and ideas that Brazil is close to sold out for the year has added to the bullish tone. The weekly conditions report showed that just 45% of the crop was rated good/excellent on Sunday compared to 53% last week and 66% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 64%. The lowest percent rated good/excellent was 18% in 1988. Indiana conditions fell to just 20% good/excellent from 24% last week and from 57% last year. Illinois fell to just 28% good/excellent from 35% last week and from 59% last year and even Iowa fell 4% to 59%. The 4-day outlook for very hot and dry weather for the Midwest and northern Delta region helped to support the market to new contract highs yesterday and again overnight. Midday weather maps yesterday showed a better chance for rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt in the 6-10 day forecast and Chicago temperatures pull back from the 100's on Wednesday and Thursday to the mid-80's by the end of the weekend. The 11 to 15 day map looks wetter for the Central and South Western Midwest as well, although confidence is low in this forecast. High humidity and warm temperatures will increase the chance for pop-up thunderstorms. The USDA announced a sale of 1.9 million tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destination. Traders believe this will be China and it is the fifth largest one-day sale on record. Export inspections came in at 13.9 million bushels which was up from 9.2 million last week and up from 12.8 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Brazil exported 4.84 million tonnes of soybeans in June, down from 7.29 million in May and 4.55 million a year ago.
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