November soybeans traded unchanged near 7:00 am cst this morning. August soybean meal traded up $1 while soybean oil was down 29 cents. China soybean futures were down 0.77% overnight and Malaysia palm oil prices slipped lower on weak export demand. Chinese equity markets were higher overnight but those markets had to throw off initial weakness to finish in positive ground. European equity markets were weak to start today, as fresh slowing fears combined with disappointing forward guidance from Wall Street to push some investors back to the sidelines. Perhaps fresh spending cuts from Spain overnight will provide a slight positive for the trade today, but the global economic report slate doesn't look to provide anything particularly significant over the coming 24 hours of trade. Later today, the US will release Wholesale Trade, Foreign Trade and FOMC meeting minutes and there might not be much surprise from those reports. The USDA report out early today, might serve to contribute to inflationary expectations, but only if supply declines enough to offset anticipated declines in demand for grains. There were no deliveries posted for July soybeans. There were also no meal deliveries but oil deliveries were reported at 588 contracts to bring the total this month to 13,848. SOYBEANS: For this morning's USDA report, the market is expecting 2012/13 domestic ending stocks near 141 million bushels, nearly unchanged from the June estimate of 140 million bushels. A revision in domestic ending stocks under 120 would be considered bullish. The trade is also expecting 2012/13 global soybean stocks near 57 million tonnes, or 1.50 million tonnes lower than the June estimate. The USDA report is only a best guess on U.S. yield and production and is NOT a surveyed report. As a result, traders see the USDA yield estimate coming down slightly near 42.5 bushels/acre, down from the 43.9 yield projected in June. Most in the trade feel we are near a 40-41 bushel/acre yield at this point but further stress caused by dry conditions could push yield closer to 37-39 bushels/acre. While there is room to cut demand in the U.S. corn balance sheet, the soybean market does not have that same luxury. China continues to import U.S. soybeans at a record pace and new crop soybean export sales are already sharply ahead of last year's pace. However, crush margins are very weak in China and traders are uncertain on China new demand at even higher prices. Lower production in South America will continue to shift demand to the U.S. tightening the balance sheet. The lack of rain across the heart of the Midwest forecasted for this week after the extreme heat of last week has traders expecting sharply lower yield potential for the soybean crop. Rain is expected to move into the parts of the Midwest into the middle of next week, but confidence is low in this forecast with most of the rain expected east of the Mississippi. Showers moved through parts of the southeast and delta this morning which will provide relief to soybeans in this area. Soybeans in the central and western Midwest remain the primary concern for the market.
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