The overnight trade in soybeans was thin after markets sold off yesterday. Soybean traders saw relief from the recent wide evening trade ranges. The November contract was trading 3 cents lower near 7 am CST. Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is up 10. Chinese Shares were mixed overnight, as Hong Kong shares finished lower and the Shanghai market was marginally higher. European shares were generally higher in the wake of gains in bank shares, but somewhat favorable data from the Euro zone overnight might have given investors an added boost. In fact, Euro zone retail sales managed to rise for the second straight month and Germany managed a slight improvement in a German July PMI report and that serves to improve sentiment from the depths seen in the wake of the ECB misfire. The bulls in beans probably need to see a US Non farm payroll gain at or above +100,000 to see some fresh support from the macro economic front. The soybean market continues to whip back and forth as traders digest weather forecasts and track yield loss around the country. While the market may feel slightly better about weather this week, the reality is not much has changed from the week prior. Temperatures have eased slightly across the Midwest but rain continues to disappoint with accumulation in parts of the central Midwest and eastern Corn Belt amounting to less than 1 inch. A high pressure ridge is expected to hold in the western Midwest next week and send another shot of above normal temperatures into the southwestern Midwest. The market was stirred up yesterday after Tropical Depression 5 developed in the Atlantic but the track is expected to move the storm towards Mexico, offering limited to no rainfall to the central Midwest. Updated topsoil maps show Illinois now has 100% short to very short topsoil conditions. Indiana is 93% and Missouri is 99%. There are reports of soybeans turning brown in central Illinois and Nebraska soybean crops are reportedly under extreme amounts of stress. The southeast and southern Delta has benefited from recent rainfall and soybeans conditions have likely seen some improvement in these regions. The question now becomes if more favorable conditions in the east will offset those of the west. While the development of El Nino, in a normal year, would likely stabilize crops in the last part of August or early September, crop development is so far ahead of schedule that this change in weather will likely not help at all. At this point, the only weather event that can shift conditions drastically will be a hurricane or tropical storm ripping through the Gulf of Mexico. A closely followed agricultural weather service dropped their soybean yield estimate yesterday to 36 bushels/acre and also noted that downside is still likely. If this were the final yield, it would imply production near 2.7 billion bushels and drop the stocks to usage ratio to negative 6%. The next 10-14 days continue to be the most critical period for soybean yield potential but reports continue to circulate that pod counts are low and soybean plants look smaller than average. Stress on soybeans is likely to continue.