November soybeans were down 8 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. Malaysia palm futures were down 1.3% and China futures closed down 0.7%. Outside market forces look mixed as a weak global equity market theme due to debt concerns for the US and Europe was seen as negative but sharply higher gold and silver is somewhat positive. Weekend rain amounts for northern Illinois and parts of Indiana and Ohio which helped ease crop stress helped to pressure the market and weather models show a chance of more rains for other parts of the corn belt for early and later this week which added to the negative tone this morning. There is also more heat coming but not near the extreme of last week and this is offset by the outlook for rains in the delta as well. Traders see crop conditions declining by 2-3% this week due to dryness in the south. However, the first half of August is the more weather-sensitive time for soybeans and rains this week could improve crop conditions going into early August. The heat in the last two weeks is a bigger factor for corn than soybeans. With severe drought in the southern plains, traders remain concerned that the Midwest sees more hot and dry episodes moving up into the Midwest from the southern plains. For now, the extended forecast models show the heat in the southern plains or even a bit further west. November soybeans saw mostly choppy trade for the session on Friday. The lower opening was met with active buyers with talk that key analysts were lowering their yield forecasts after severe heat last week. A jump in the US dollar and a cooler and wetter forecast into the weekend and early this week for the northern and eastern Corn Belt helped to pressure the market. However, the surge up in gold and silver and plus a positive tilt to energy and sugar markets helped restore some confidence to the commodity bulls and supported more active trade and a rally. While parts of the Midwest turn hot this week but not as hot as last week, traders are concerned with parts of the delta and southern and Western Midwest where little rain is in the forecast. Crops in these areas could show further deterioration. Rains across northern Illinois were seen as beneficial to crops and traders also see rains across parts of Nebraska and Iowa late last week helping to ease stressful conditions. The Commitments of Traders reports as of July 19th for Soybeans showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 110,709 contracts, an increase of 37,822 contracts for the week and the buying trend is seen as a short-term positive force. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 167,071 contracts, down 1,612. For meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 23,482 contracts, an increase of 14,511 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 37,294 contracts, up a whopping 22,031 contracts in just one week. For oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 34,197 contracts, an increase of 6,704 contracts for the week. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 84,940 contracts, up 2,932 on the week.
Join the Discussion