November soybeans were down 3 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Malaysia palm futures closed up 0.7% overnight, and China soybean futures closed up 0.4%. More and more edible oil makers are able to raise prices in China, and this seems to be improving demand from crushers. Outside market forces look positive today with some stability in the US stock market overnight and a sharp break in the US dollar and higher precious metals. Meal deliveries against the August contract this morning came in at 174 contracts, compared with 3 yesterday. Oil deliveries were 317. There are still no deliveries for August soybeans. A general perception that the USDA may lower its soybean yield estimate in next week's USDA production and supply/demand report and a surge higher in corn values helped drive the soybean market sharply higher yesterday. Traders continue to believe that the heat in July stressed soybean crops and that it could lower yield. However, the market was trading at the lowest level since July 12th early yesterday on a weather outlook calling for significant rain and more normal temperatures for the next few weeks. The weather forecast suggests yield potential could improve, as mid-August weather is most critical to soybeans. July weather may have permanently lowered yield potential for corn, and a tighter corn supply has implications for meal prices and demand. As a result, soybeans followed corn higher yesterday. Some early trade estimates for soybean yield are calling for a drop of 1 bushel/acre from the current USDA estimate of 43.4 bushels/acre. If so, and demand numbers are left unchanged, ending stocks for the 2011/12 season would slip to just 100 million bushels and the stocks/usage ratio to 3.1%. This would be the lowest stocks level since 1972 and the lowest stocks/usage on record (back to 1964). Private exporters reported to the USDA the cancellation of 550,000 tonnes of US soybean exports to China for the 2010/11 season and reported export sales of 550,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2011/12 season.
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