November soybeans are trading 2 cents higher near 7:30 am cst and soybean meal and oil are seeing marginal support. There were no October soybean meal deliveries bringing the month to date total to 10. There were 1,333 soybean oil deliveries which brought the month to date total to 11,053. Malaysian Palm Oil futures ended higher overnight on bargain hunting as well as short covering. Traders also noted that many were positioning ahead of a delayed decision by the government to cut palm oil export taxes. Hong Kong shares managed to extend to yet another gain on the day to finish the week out on a very positive track. Apparently Chinese auto sales were positive with BMW posting a 55% gain in auto sales for September. European stocks were up slightly in anticipation of something positive from the US Non Farm payroll report later in the trading session. There has been some buzz that the non farm payroll report in the US will see some upward revisions to prior month's data today and seeing the current month come in above +120,000 would probably be enough to leave a risk-on vibe in place today. The markets in general didn't seem to get much of an additional lift from the BOJ meeting, perhaps because there has been a flurry of central bank meetings this week, or the trade is somewhat on hold ahead of the US data.
November soybeans surged higher yesterday after reporting another round of explosive export sales. The sharply lower US dollar and a 4% move higher in Crude Oil added to the supportive tone. Some traders believe that despite a possible increase in the US average soybean yield in next week's USDA report; the likelihood of increased demand could mean extra supply will not improve this year's US soybean carryout drastically. Demand continues to be robust which is supporting a positive outlook.
Weekly export sales totaled 1.297 million bushels as compared with only 108,200 tonnes need to be sold each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. The 5-week average for weekly sales is at 778,200 tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 71.7% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 42.7% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. At this rate, we will reach the USDA forecast by November 15th. If sales are over the 5 week average until then, this year's export sales goal could be reached before harvest is complete. Meal sales are also running strong, having reached 41% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 21.1% as the 5-year average. The soybean sales data suggest that commercial traders will need to pull a huge amount of soybeans out of the farmers' hands before January in order to fulfill export commitments. The meal data suggest that crushers will need to be more active than normal and will also have to pull soybeans away from the farmers.
The soybean market is also seeing support from a bullish Statistics Canada report on Canola yesterday. Stats Canada reported Canola production at 13.6 million tonnes from 15.4 million tonnes as their previous estimate. This, along with a tight US soybean balance sheet appears supportive as the world oilseed balance sheet tightens and world demand remains positive. Soybean basis rose on the Mississippi and Illinois river yesterday after reporting better than expected export sales and on thoughts that China might be a buyer of soybeans when they return from holiday next week. Davenport, IA river bids rose by 1 cent to 32 under the November contract and Morris, IL river bids increased by 2 cents to 6 under the November contract. Decatur, IL was steady at 12 over the November contract.
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