March wheat was up 10 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces are a bit more positive this morning. The export tender wire is very active and a general sense that the political situations in North Africa and the Middle East are quieting down for the weekend may have helped provide some support overnight. In addition, traders see dry weather for the western Kansas region and south as a positive set-up as weather will become more important in the weeks just ahead. In addition, a slowdown in fund trader selling is seen as a potential positive for today. South Korea bought 30,000 tonnes of US wheat and Saudi Arabia is tendering for 275,000 tonnes of milling wheat. Indonesia flour mills bought 150,000 tonnes of Australia milling wheat this week. The United Arab Emirates bought 40,000 tonnes yesterday and Tunisia bought 75,000 tonnes. Iraq also issued a tender to buy 100,000 tonnes. Traders see weekly export sales near 850,000 tonnes this week as compared with 361,700 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the season. March wheat closed sharply lower on the session yesterday but traded inside the range of the first hour of trade for the entire session. This was the lowest close since December 1st. The market saw a steady flow of speculative selling (thought to be long liquidation) to pressure the market early in the session with futures giving back a good portion of the late rally from Wednesday. Better weather for China, some rains for the central and eastern winter wheat belt in the US and talk of a much larger world crop for the coming year helped to pressure. The International Grains Council pegged 2011/12 world wheat production at 672 million tonnes, up 24 million tonnes from this past year. In the last USDA world supply/demand report, world consumption for the 2010/11 season was 665.23 million tonnes. For the Outlook Conference, the USDA left their planted acreage outlook for the 2011/12 season at 57 million acres from the forecast of a few weeks ago but this is still up from 53.6 million last year. However, harvested acreage is near last year's level and yield expectations are down with a production estimate of 2.080 billion bushels from 2.208 billion last year. Ending stocks are projected at 663 million bushels which would be down from 818 million bushels this year. The European Union granted export licenses for 439,000 tonnes this week which pushed the cumulative exports for the 2010/11 season to 13.6 million tonnes compared with 11.6 million last year.
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