December wheat was down 4 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market factors look slightly positive today with a mixed US dollar but sharply higher US equity market. Weakness in energy is an offset. Traders were looking for 0-500 contracts for first notice day deliveries for wheat this morning. There were 1,552 contracts delivered by one house and a lack of a strong stopper. A little rain in the forecast in the extended forecast models for the drought areas of the southern plains appears to be the key negative force of the past few trading sessions. World import demand appears fairly active, but much of the business is moving to the Black Sea countries. Exports from the Black Sea region are expected to continue to saturate world demand. While there are normally 10 trains of grain waiting to unload at Russia's key export port of Novorossiysk, there were an estimated 40 trains awaiting unloading (3,400 cars), and the railway authorities are banning the movement of new trains to the port for another 5-6 days to help clear the backlog. Australian production is expected to be near 24 million tonnes of wheat, and the quality is expected to be much better than last year. December wheat closed slightly lower on the session yesterday and managed to pull up significantly from the lows, with some late buying tied to strength in corn and soybeans. The outlook for some rains in the dry areas of the southern plains next week was enough to spark increased selling and moderately lower trade early. A jump in the US dollar added to the negative tone. Talk of the overbought technical condition of the market and a lower close Monday after moving to the highest level since June 14th was also seen as a negative technical development. The plains need a lot more rain to normalize soil conditions, but traders see any moisture at all beneficial for planting. Private exporters reported the sale of 102,500 tonnes of US hard red winter wheat to an unknown destination. In a survey of nearly 1,000 farmers, Farm Futures magazine indicated that all wheat planted area in 2012 could reach 58.63 million acres, up 3.9% from this year.
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