December wheat was down 9 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look negative again this morning with a new high for the move for the US dollar and weakness in energy and equity markets. The market saw more positive technical action yesterday, but the outlook for improving rains for the southern and central plains into the weekend may be seen as a limiting force for a more extended recovery. Bearish outside market forces and the outlook for continued stiff competition from Europe and the Black Sea region for export business are seen as negative factors, and the push higher in the US dollar makes the US less competitive. December wheat closed more than 10 cents higher on the session yesterday, while December Minneapolis wheat closed down 7 cents as the spreads corrected. The market saw a lower opening, but buyers were active early as outside market forces turned less bearish and traders saw the market as oversold. Part of the selling Friday was triggered by corn weakness, so the recovery in corn futures helped relieve selling pressures for wheat. The Sunday night selling drove the wheat market down to its lowest level since July 1st of 2010 before it staged a turnaoround and closed higher. Ideas that the market was oversold after the recent setback and talk of improving demand due to the break helped to provide some support. However, talk of increased chances of hefty rain totals for the central and southern plains for later this week was seen as a negative development for wheat prices, and this may have helped limit the advance. The region needs lots of rainy days in the weeks just ahead to recharge soils for any hope of a decent start to the winter wheat crop. The weekly Crop Progress report showed that 42% of the US winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, compared to 26% last week and 52% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 54%. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at 22 million bushels, which was near the low end of trade expectations. Weekly exports need to average 18.17 million bushels each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Traders will also monitor the Canadian wheat production report for release before the opening. Many traders are looking for production to be around 24.4 million tonnes, up from the current estimate of 24.1 million. Libya is in the market for 100,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
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