December wheat was down 8 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces looked mixed with quiet trade in the dollar and energy markets and slightly lower stock market. Talk that Ukraine may cancel export duties for wheat and corn may have been one of the key factors for the turnaround yesterday, and the market saw follow-through selling overnight as Ukraine's parliament voted out the duties. This will cause increased competition on the world market for exports, as both Russia and Ukraine are likely to be aggressive exporters in the months just ahead. The USDA supply/demand update next week is not expected to bring much in the way of surprises, as a production update was included in last week's Small Grains Summary and there are not expected many changes in the demand estimates. December wheat closed moderately lower on the session yesterday after first trading sharply higher on the session. After an early short covering surge, the market came under heavy selling pressure to push moderately lower on the day. A supportive tilt to outside market forces helped support the early bounce, but more talk of the longer-term benefit of the forecast for heavy rains for the southern plains into the weekend helped to pressure the market. Rains in Argentina are thought to have aided the wheat crop. Weekly export sales, released before the open yesterday, came in at 431,200 metric tonnes, which was right on trade expectations and close to last week's total. Cumulative wheat sales stand at 52.6% of the USDA forecast for 2011/12 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 55.0%. Sales of 377,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The European Union this week granted export licenses for 349,000 tonnes of wheat, which pushed cumulative exports since the beginning of July to 3.8 million tonnes, compared to 6.8 million by this date last year. This shows the impact of the aggressive sales out of the Black Sea region this year. Tunisia bought 75,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 75,000 tonnes of durum, and Philippines bought 30,000 tonnes from Australia. Thailand is in the market for 40,000 tonnes of US wheat.
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