December wheat was up 1 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. There was a late session setback after trading as much as 12 1/2 cents higher. Outside market forces shifted from positive to negative with a turn up in the US dollar and a setback in energy and equity markets. After volatile trade last week, the market settled in to consolidate near 625 December late in the week. There are some longer-term supply concerns for next year's crop, but traders are waiting to see if Russia exports can slow at all. Russia exported a record 2.8 million tonnes of wheat in August. Iraq bought 350,000 tonnes of wheat at a tender overnight, with 150,000 of the total from Russia, 150,000 tonnes from Canada and 50,000 tonnes from Australia. Traders indicated that bottlenecks in transportation from Russia opened the door for other exporters. The US weekly update tonight could show winter wheat plantings to around 70% complete due to better moisture from last week, but a two-week outlook of very dry conditions does not bode well for early growth to get the crop settled before dormancy. There are also concerns in Ukraine from a lack of rain before their crop moves into dormancy. A senior weather forecaster in Ukraine indicated overnight that producer plantings for the 2012 crop may be down 1 million hectares. December wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents on the session Friday and closed up 15 1/4 cents on the week. Net weekly export sales for wheat, released before the open on Friday, came in at 483,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 17,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 500,600, which was a bit higher than expected. Sales of 334,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The market found some support from talk of dry weather returning to the southern and central US plains. Libya cancelled a tender to buy 100,000 tonnes of milling wheat. The Commitments of Traders reports as of October 11th showed non-commercial traders were net short 45,219 contracts, an increase of 2,806 contracts for the week and the selling trend is seen as a short term negative force. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net short position of 68,329 contracts, up 3,698 contracts for the week and getting close to the record net short position of 71,215 contracts from mid-June 2010. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 189,493 contracts, down 1,447.
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