December wheat was up 14 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look supportive this morning, and the break in the US dollar to the lowest level since early September is a positive development for wheat. Outside market forces turned very positive overnight, and with speculators holding a hefty net short position in the last COT report, some traders expect active short-covering today. Russia exported a record 3.8 million tonnes of grain and flour in September and took all of the Egypt tender business yesterday. Egypt bought 120,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia in their tender, and some traders saw this as negative, as Ukraine may be a little more aggressive on the next tender. Traders were a bit surprised that Ukraine was not a more aggressive on the tender, with offers nearly $6.00 per tonne higher than Russia. There is 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain/snow in the short-term forecast for the southern plains winter wheat areas, and traders see the moisture as beneficial, but the cold is a bit of a concern. In addition, the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast models look dry. Crop conditions to start the season are unchanged from last year but still the worst since at least 1986. Ukraine areas also look dry. December wheat closed sharply lower on the session, near the lows of the day. The market had a firm tone into the opening on dry weather issues for winter wheat crops in the US and Ukraine, but weakness in outside markets helped to pressure the market. A turn up in the US dollar had traders less interested in risky assets like agricultural futures, and a long liquidation selling trend emerged.
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