December wheat was up 3/4 of a cent late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look slightly positive with a weak US dollar and strength in metal and energy markets. Until there is a slowdown in Black Sea origin exports or a more significant global weather issue, US exports may stay slow as increasing supply from the southern hemisphere moves onto the market. The weekly winter wheat conditions report showed that 50% of the crop was rated good/excellent, which was unchanged from last week and compares with 47% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 56%. The lowest good/excellent crop rating was 42% in 1999. December wheat closed moderately lower on the session yesterday and is now down as much as 74 3/4 cents from the November highs. Continued stiff competition on exports and weakness in outside market forces helped to pressure the market to their lowest level since June of 2010. Egypt bought 240,000 tonnes of wheat from the Black Sea providers on Saturday at what was considered a cheap price. Weekly export inspections came in at just 11.59 million bushels, which was lower than expected and lower than the 18.8 million necessary each week to reach the USDA forecast for the season. Syria announced an optional origin wheat tender for 100,000 tonnes of wheat. Algeria is in the market for 50,000 tonnes of durum. Japan is skipping their weekly tender this week. The weekend COT report showed that as of November 15th, trend following fund traders (non-commercial less index funds) had already reached a net short position close to the record high at 74,755 contracts. December Minneapolis wheat closed down 20 3/4 cents on the session to push to the lowest level since October 18th.
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