March wheat was up 1 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look positive this morning with weakness in the dollar and strong gains for equity, energy and gold. There were no new deliveries against the December contract this morning for the second day in a row. Renewed concerns that US wheat exporters will continue to struggle for a share of the global export market with continued cheap supply from the black Sea region and increasing supply from the southern hemisphere remains as a negative force and helped to pressure the market yesterday. For the USDA supply/demand update, traders see a slight increase in ending stocks from 828 million bushels posted last month. For world ending stocks, traders are looking for an increase of about 400,000 tonnes to near 203 million tonnes but world supply is likely to increase again with adjustments higher for Canada and Australia. World supply may be adjusted higher by about 2-4 million tonnes. World ending stocks in the November report were 202.6 million tonnes from 196.13 million last year. March wheat closed slightly lower on the session yesterday but up off of the early lows. The US dollar rallied right into the opening and other commodity markets and the US stock market were falling and this caused the sharply lower opening. However, bargain hunters emerged to support a rally off of the lows. Weekly export sales came in at 427,200 metric tonnes which was below trade expectations. Cumulative wheat sales stand at 69.1% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 69.9%. Sales of 313,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Iraq bought 400,000 tonnes of wheat at their tender for 50,000 tonnes of which 250,000 was from Russia and 150,000 tonnes from Canada. Tunisia bought 75,000 tonnes of wheat at their tender for 137,500 tonnes. Taiwan bought 83,000 tonnes of US milling wheat for Jan-Feb shipment. The European Union granted export licenses this week for 142,000 tonnes of wheat which pushed the cumulative exports for the season to 6.6 million tonnes as compared with 10.3 million exported by this time last year.
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