July wheat was trading 8 1/4 cents lower late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look slightly positive with a weak US dollar and firm trade for metals. There were 48 deliveries against the May wheat this morning bringing the total for the month to 50. Ideas that China may be a more active buyer on the world market ahead plus crop concerns for Australia, Russia and the Ukraine have helped to support an aggressive short-covering rally in the past few days. The COT reports as of April 24th showed Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders still held a net short position of 67,940 contracts. This news has clashed with improving crop conditions in the US and less concerns with crops in Europe. The weekly Winter Wheat Conditions report showed that 64% of the crop was rated good/excellent compared to 63% last week and 34% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 49%. The crop is also more advanced than recent years with 54% of the crop headed as compared with 29% last year. The weekly Spring Wheat Planting report showed that a record high 74% of the crop is planted compared to 57% last week and 9% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 38%. The previous highest percent complete was 73% in 1988. Spring wheat emergence in South Dakota is at 79% from 16% average. Late buying in meal and corn helped support a higher close yesterday in spite of early selling pressures as short-covering emerged to support the market late in the day. The weekend cold weather was not as cold as feared and a lack of weather issues ahead helped to pressure the market early. A firm US dollar, weakness in soybeans and other commodity markets and talk that the rally on Friday was overdone helped to pressure. Weekly export inspections came in at 19.8 million bushels which was near trade expectations and compares with 17.7 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Taiwan is in the market for 56,500 tonnes of US wheat. July Minneapolis wheat pushed down to the lowest level since January 20th yesterday before closing higher and some traders may see this as a positive technical development. The market was down 11 3/4 cents late in the overnight session.
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