July wheat was trading 4 cents lower late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look negative again today with weakness in global equities, weakness in metal and energy markets and a firm US dollar. There were 170 deliveries this morning against the May wheat with the total for the month at 225. The forecast for another rain event in the plains after a week or so of dryness plus the bearish tone to outside market forces has helped to pressure the market overnight. With July wheat already trading under July corn, the market has been following the corn market closely. There are still some weather concerns for Eastern Europe and Ukraine and Russia but there have been enough light showers to avoid significant concerns so far. A strong dollar today and Eurozone economic concerns are negative forces. Taiwan is tendering to 48,700 tonnes of US wheat and Lebanon bought 50,000 tonnes. On a day of exceptionally weak outside market forces yesterday, July wheat managed to push to a 4-session high to close higher on the day. With a bearish tone to outside market forces, the market did not see too much selling as traders see more short-covering ahead of the USDA Crop Production and supply/demand reports for Thursday. The tendency to lighten up on all positions when the financial markets turn more volatile seems to be supporting a short-covering trend. For the reports tomorrow morning, traders see winter wheat production near 1.64 billion bushels as compared with 1.494 billion last year. All wheat production is expected near 2.195 billion bushels as compared with 1.999 billion last year. For ending stocks for the 2011/12 season, traders see stocks near 780 million bushels as compared with 793 million posted in the April update. For the 2012/13 season, traders see ending stocks near 785 million bushels but with a range of near 600-925 million bushels.
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