July wheat was trading 1 3/4 cents higher late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look mixed to slightly positive today. Traders are not comfortable with the hot and dry forecast for southern Russia and Ukraine and there are also concerns for deteriorating crop conditions in western Kansas and less than ideal conditions for parts of eastern Europe. Last year, a surge in Black Sea production left the US and European exporters in a constant struggle to export wheat with Black Sea wheat plentiful. With normal weather, the USDA pegged FSU-12 production at 97.7 million tonnes as compared with 114.4 million last year. If Ukraine and Russia have further weather issues, exports could be smaller than expected. July wheat closed more than 30 cents higher on the session yesterday as a steady flow of short-covering from fund traders helped to drive the market higher for much of the day and to new highs right into the close. Traders have taken some of the rain out of the winter wheat area forecast and traders remain concerned over possible deteriorating crop conditions in western Kansas. Traders see mostly dry weather for the plains for the next ten days. Talk of a hefty net short position by fund traders in wheat and ideas that demand could be strong over the near-term helped to support. Iraq plans on buying 400,000 tonnes of wheat from the US, Australia and FSU countries. Jordan bought 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat and is tendering for 100,000 tonnes. For the weekly export sales report, traders see sales near 500,000 tonnes as compared with 550,500 tonnes last week.
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