September Chicago wheat traded 8 cents higher near 5:00 am CST while Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat posted marginal gains. The November Paris Matif contract is down 0.70% near 246.75 Euros. Outside markets are providing a positive tilt to commodity markets this morning with U.S. stocks slightly higher, the U.S. Dollar weaker, and crude oil trading stronger. There were 58 wheat deliveries in Chicago yesterday, bringing the month-to-date total to 830 contracts. For this morning's USDA report, the trade is expecting All Wheat production near 2.250 billion bushels vs. 2011/12 production of 1.999 billion bushels. This would also be 16 million bushels higher than the June USDA estimate. The market is also projecting Other Spring Wheat production near 500 million bushels vs. 2011/2012 production of 455 million bushels. A number below 475 million bushels might be considered bullish for Minneapolis spring wheat. In addition, market participants will keep a close eye on the world balance sheet and examine the 2012/13 world carryout and cuts to major exporter production estimates. The trade expects 2012/13 all wheat carryout near 182 million tonnes, which would be 3 million tonnes lower than the June estimate. The trade may be too conservative on this revision as many traders believe 6-8 million tonnes is more realistic due to increased wheat feeding and Black Sea production revisions. Possible key changes to the Black Sea production estimates include downgrades of 3-4 million tonnes for Russia, 1 million tonnes for Kazakhstan, and 1 million tonnes for Ukraine. The initial trade will be reactionary to the published numbers; however focus will likely shift back onto the U.S. Midwest forecast and yield estimates for the fall crops in the U.S. International weather problems, specifically in the Black Sea region, remain the key concern for the wheat market. Spring wheat growing areas of the Volga Valley remain stressed and the 2 week forecast calls for drier conditions, increasing the yield risk on spring crop.
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