September wheat was up 4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces are mostly positive as a significant break in the US dollar might spark improved interest in commodity markets. A more positive tilt to global demand and a weaker US dollar are factors which helped support the market overnight. Egypt is tendering for more wheat with results expected today and traders suspect that Russia will be the supplier again. Russia was the supplier in each of the past two tenders. Bulgaria officials indicate that they can supply Jordan with the entire 800,000 tonnes of import needs. Traders see Australia as a more competitive exporter this coming season as Western Australia high quality milling wheat production is expected to double this year to near 9 million tonnes due to near ideal weather. In the US, the weekly Spring Wheat Conditions report showed that 74% of the crop was rated good/excellent compared to 73% last week and 83% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 63%. For the winter wheat crop, harvest has reached 75% complete compared to 68% last week and 78% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 82%. September wheat closed just slightly lower on the session yesterday and managed a strong rally off of the early lows. Some showers and cooler weather for the northern plains in the US helped to pressure the market as traders see crop conditions improving ahead for the coming week. A forecast for higher Russian wheat production than previously expected helped add to the negative tone early in the day and weakness in the other grains also helped to pressure. The weekly export inspections report showed wheat exports at 22.44 million bushels which was higher than expected and up from 19.4 million last week. Exports need to average 21.9 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Too much rain into the harvest is a concern for European wheat but most world crops appear to be moving ahead without serious weather issues. Traders will monitor results of the spring wheat crop tour this week.
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