Tonight's UFC welterweight contest between Jon Fitch and B.J. Penn promises to be a great fight.

Fitch is favored, and will win for four reasons:

4) Confidence. Fitch only has one loss in his last 21 fights, and that was to Georges St. Pierre, perhaps the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter alive. When you win as often as Fitch, you have the swagger it takes to keep winning.

3) Penn may be slipping. Penn has lost two of his last three matches, with both losses to the same guy: Frankie Edgar. You'd think Penn would have come back and won the rematch, but he didn't. He defeated Mark Hughes in his last match, and it was convincing, but Hughes is a very good fighter, while Fitch is great.

2) More experience as a welterweight. Fitch is more accustomed to the weight class than Penn. Fitch has fought roughly 20 matches as a welterweight, while Penn has only fought 6.

1) Fitch is simply better. A great wrestler, Fitch is also excellent at ground-and-pound fighting. He can take Penn down, and when he does, he will hold him. This one should go the distance, and Fitch is great at winning decisions.