Key News

Key Reports Due (WSJ):

  • No economic events are scheduled for today.


While payrolls slid by 345,000, much below the consensus guess, it was the usual hokey number, getting a lift from the wonderful birth/death model, which somehow summoned up 220,000 jobs and did so, magically, out of thin air.

The harsh truth is that, using the regular payroll data, a rather formidable 14.5 million people are out of work. Moreover, if we look at the category we feel gives a more accurate picture -- the so-called U-6 tally -- which includes people too discouraged to keep looking for a job and those working part-time because they can't find full-time slots, the unemployment rate shot up to a new high of 16.4%. That means that something around 25 million folks are effectively on the dole. Ugh!

Alan Abelson, Barron's

FX Trading - Premise Check?

What if:

  • The world will be struggling with deflation instead of inflation?
  • US employment and housing experience another leg down?
  • China disappoints?
  • An Eastern European country defaults?
  • The US is on track to at least muddle through better than Europe?

... well, it might mean:

  • Commodities prices are way overvalued
  • Emerging stock markets are way overvalued
  • Long bonds are way undervalued
  • The US dollar is way undervalued

Is it time for a premise check? We think so.

Jack Crooks