Taking a look at the fundamentals for the upcoming Asian and Euro-zone sessions, the RBA will unveil their monetary policy meeting minutes. That can give traders an insight into the thinking that went into the previous RBA meeting, where the central bank held rates steady at 4.5%, its first pause since February.
The bank, while trying to assess the damage to the global economy from the Euro-zone has implied that it would like to bring rates higher as strong profits in the mining sector extend an employment boom and has the potential to stoke inflation. The Bank of Japan meanwhile will conclude its interest rate meeting. It is set to detail a plan to stimulate credit for private companies though the program may be limited to a few trillion yen (tens of billions of US Dollars) and may not provide the boost needed to spur economic growth.
In tomorrow's European session, the UK will post its consumer price data. In April annual consumer inflation was up 3.7%. Forecasts are calling for the rate to cool to 3.5%. The BOE has said that the high levels of inflation currently are temporary and that the rate will come down.
If that doesn't appear in the data tomorrow, there will be more pressure on the BOE to send signals it is prepared to raise rates. Following the CPI data at 4:30AM, BOE Governor King and several MPC members will go before Parliament as part of the Inflation Report Hearings, which is a quarterly chance for lawmakers to ask the central bank officials questions regarding the inflation outlook. That can create some market volatility and event risk.
In the Euro-zone we have several reports to look out for as well. First, the ZEW releases its Economic Sentiment index for Germany and the Euro-zone. This is a leading indicator as it measures the relative 6-month outlook from the point of view of institutional investors and analysts. Expectations are for the index to climb from its 45.8 reading in May to 48.7 in June.
Also on tap will be Euro-zone trade data for the April period. It will be an interesting to see if the weaker Euro will filter down into stronger export growth and a better trade surplus. The trade surplus stood at€0.6B in March and is expected to rise to €1.7B for April.