Fed officials have driven market participants to believe in a soon to be implemented rate hike and that the economy has leaped from its dooms, yet the matter of unprecedented fact is the unanimous support for the strong dollar policy, as it started with Paulson, now Bernanke and also President Bush it is seemingly the new national call, to support the dollar!
Nations are now struggling to withhold the aftermath of the credit crisis and drained liquidity, along with slowing global demand which was pressured even further with surging commodities. Japan the world's second largest economy is in the spot as expectations the exporting nation will slow as well affected by the global slowdown, especially with the high volatility that surrounds the yen, as today they did reveal a shrinking current account surplus pressured by record oil prices, yet they did really pull through the first quarter on a strong pace, as their GDP was revised higher to 1.0% while expanding an annualized 4.0% after initially reported 3.3% as businesses spending supported growth above expectation.
Still though the economy is seen to have started to weaken in the course of the second quarter, while rising inflation is forcing the BoJ to continue their hawkish stance, after suffering to take rates to 0.5% as the nation was suffering deep deflation stage and they are expected to keep rates steady at least.
As for the economy that is now the second runner up for a US scenario, the United Kingdom more details are to be revealed to us today regarding the state of economy as the focus is on the labor market. The unemployment rate is expected steady at 5.2% while the economy is expected to have shed 8,000 more jobs after 7,200 lost in April.
The BoE expected the labor market to weaken further and that limits spending even further, as Britons have already tightened their wallets with their expectations of record inflation, recession, and deterioration disposable income. While the housing market is still declining and the financial sector is still fragile the economy is expected to fall in recession dampened further by surging inflation that is limiting the move by the BoE while trades now expect them to even hike rates by year end!
The end will be with a stop in the US, as the Feds Beige Book is on the queue for release laying the grounds for the FOMC decision as it summarizes economic conditions. Bernanke is now fearing inflation expectations and as well said the economy is passed the acute phase and should start to pick up pace, as they see expenditure to rise helped by the rebates that were given out that can support spending which is a major collaboration to the GDP as it accounts for 2/3.
Nevertheless, the economy has a though journey ahead to rise once more and do not expect miraculous work all of a sudden. The feds have pledged that the economy will start picking up pace in the latter half of the year, while the housing market is now near bottoming out which is added positive signs.
The dollar is still withholding its gains and until fundamentals come to prove other than what the Feds have bestowed upon markets the short-term bullish dollar trend will prevail. Still the current market sentiment is in the shaping and might be altered at any second and still only data from the heart of the economy can prove the state of the US economy and no testimony effect will last enough unless proven precise and realistic...