Rain in the forecast could wipe out dry conditions and the chance for higher corn and bean prices.
With the crops now planted, weather and its impact on the crops development is 90% of the pricing influence for the futures.
We're in the early stages for corn and beans when root systems are developed. There's only been one week of rain beneficial for the crops the last six weeks. One of the warmest and driest winters on record left subsoil moisture at a minimum.
Top soil is fair at best in the Midwest, and corn and beans have a very shallow root system. An extended dry spell will deplete topsoil moisture, because roots aren't deep enough to reach moisture in the subsoil.
Timely rain weekly would keep crops maturing toward trendline or average yields even with a shallow root system.
Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, North and South Dakota look to receive about 1 to 3 inches of rain. With about 70% coverage, this is their biggest rain collectively since planting began.
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio look for one-half to one inch of rain with 60% coverage. We're not in corn's key pollination or pod setting stage for beans when yields are made or lost, so a couple of dry weeks don't kill a crop and one wet week won't make it. However, change may be in the air.
The southern Delta, where 10% of our coarse grains are grown, saw big rains last week and again this week. Planting starts earlier there than in the Midwest, so the crops enter pollination sooner in the South than in the Midwest.
There appears to be talk in the weather industry that the cold waters in the equatorial Pacific that brought the dry season are moving out and may lead to a wetter end to June and a wetter July.
WHAT TO EXPECT
If this is the case, then the growing season highs off weather are in.
The only thing to take take us to new highs would be a return to hot and dry conditions or a very bullish June 29 planted acreage report.
Look for next week to start out with lower prices as rain enters, then the week after to firm up ahead of the June 29 final planted acreage report.