Thursday's weekly export sales report again reflected the demands for high protein from outside countries, especially China. Total sales were 529 t.m.t. up 4% from the week prior, thanks to 444t.mt. purchased from China. China was in for 235t.mt. Monday and 120 on Thursday for at least 355t.mt. to show up on next week's report already. Let's go over demand prospects for mid-January through June on again. Seasonally, China's U.S. beans from October 1st to January 15th. On the 15th, China usually sees South American crops coming along well in their tropical climate and begin to slow U.S. purchases and begin buying south American beans for late March through June delivery. Now- can this change? Maybe. If the current extremely dry weather in Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil continue through January and into February, China will be forced to over purchase U.S. beans on fear South America will not be able to meet their needs. South American production is critical to the world sitting with tight ending stock reserves. U.S. demand tables remain very strong, and depending on weather there, we could either see a dramatic increase in demand pushing prices up with it; or we are going to adjust prices down. At which point we will again look to buy as beans rebound in prices to battle corn and wheat for an increase in spring acres planted. Okay on the Monday's report from the USDA. The average pre-report trade guess is that production for 2008 was 2.910b.b. vs. 2.921 on the last report. They also expect ending stocks to come in at 186m.b. down 19 m.b. from the December report. The report is expected to be friendly to bullish and making weather out of South America even more critical to pricing. We covered the weather conditions in the corn commentary so let's get to the charts. March beans have support Monday at 10.00 then 9.80. Resistance is 10.50 then 10.90. Go to WXRISK.COM for weather updates, which is the most accurate site coverage of U.S. and South America.
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