THE BOTTOM LINE
All of the Plains regions as well as the Delta and most of the Deep South for rain free in the last 24 hours. Light to moderate rains have developed over Central Texas in the last several hours... and we have light rain showers lingered across the Great Lakes and Northern ECB. Rainfall amounts here under 0.25 but the coverage was about 75% .
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
Temperatures were near-normal across the Midwest and the Deep South but we saw readings rise above normal across the Plains with temperatures pushing back into the upper 50s and a few 60s.
The national radar shows are significant rain developing over Central and eastern Texas as forecasted.
SUMMARY: Weather models continue to show a major system developing for the Plains and Midwest next week which will be followed by a seasonal shot of cold air over the Thanksgiving weekend. There is a lot of confusion in the 11 to 15 day as to whether or not December starts seasonally cold or move back to a mild pattern
In the short term the models continue to show that the system developing over eastern Texas will track along the Gulf Coast and then head up to be southeast coast this weekend bringing moderate to significant rain to the southeast and into the middle Atlantic states. Over the Plains and Midwest temperatures will continue to run above normal as a mild Pacific High pressure system dominates the pattern this weekend.
The overnight weather models are still developing a Major Low over the Plains and the Great Lakes 11/23 - 11/25. This has been the trend throughout the Autumn. This system has the potential to bring some snow to the upper Plains and the western Great Lakes 11/24... and rain to the Central Plains and most of the Midwest followed by somewhat cooler temperatures Thanksgiving day into the weekend. Not really cold but just seasonal temperatures.
The seasonal pattern once again appears to be taking over as we go reach day 9-10. A few days ago some of the models were showing a much colder pattern developing as we close out the month and moved into early December but all the data this morning is completely reverse that.
This reversal in the trends has been around for since Wednesday yesterday morning so it's not a new trend but it is increasing with each model run. All the models show more significant energy coming in on the powerful and persistent Pacific jet stream into the West Coast and the Great Basin on the 27th and the 28th. This Low pressure area that develops could bring significant snow to the great basin and the mountains of Colorado and Utah.
Of course if you have a trough of the western portion of the US than the odds favor a ridge over the eastern US which means temperature is probably running above normal. The ensemble data in 11 to 15 Day continues that trend with more energy coming in from the Pacific... no ridge over western Canada supply cold air... no blocking over eastern Canada that could slow the pattern down... and the heart of the Arctic air on the other side of the globe in Siberia.