Rally looks fragile, needs some support

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | April 24 2012 9:35 AM

Higher-yielders recovered briefly some of yesterdays losses, risky assets look fragile ahead of the main releases from the U.S; in the form of consumer confidence and new home sales. Confidence among consumers is expected to show a slight setback while new home sales expected to signal further recovery within the housing sector.

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In general, the risk-off theme continues to dominate the scenes , while markets eagerly waiting tomorrow's FOMC meeting outcome for a clue that will outline the next short term direction.

The EUR/USD rebounded slightly currently trading just below the 50-days SMA; meanwhile a bearish technical pattern could be in the process of completion, where we expect the bearish sentiment to dampen further upside for the pair. Anyhow, 1.3210-1.3220 is the main resistance level to watch over the near term, while a break below the ascending support of the aforementioned pattern around 1.3130 could put price under pressure again. Taking 1.3210 to the upside shall open the door to 1.3270.

As anticipated; Cable maintained the bullish bias, where the GBP/USD pair managed to test the major 1.6165 horizontal resistance and major swing high today, in addition to the ascending resistance of the long term rising wedge pattern. The pair continues to push to the upside, however, for the bullish move to be sustainable we need to see steady trading above this key level at 1.6165 that shall clear the way towards 1.6300 next major stop. To the downside, 1.6060 is expected to be the major downside barrier in the near term.

The USD/JPY is struggling around 81.20 resistance, failing to maintain a directional bias, we look either for a dip below 80.85 and that will signal the continuation of the bearish wave towards 80.50 and 80.00 major support area, or a break again above 81.20 followed by the descending resistance of the declining channel and that shall signal further gains for the pair eying 81.80, 82.50 and 83.20 levels.

Gold rebounded after failing to hold below the key support at 1630.00. We mentioned yesterday that retracing back above the level shall revive the bullish outlook; indeed price is testing 1645.00 now, we still anticipate another test of the top of the descending channel within the upcoming short period around 1665.00. While a push below 1630.00 with few hours of trading should trigger further downside initially to 1610.00