Economists speaking at the recent annual meeting of the National Association of Real Estate Editors said the housing market likely will not recover until 2013.
Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist, said home prices continue to decrease, and he sees the tremendous amount of shadow inventory delaying recovery. We think the market will be flat in nominal terms for three to five years, remarked Humphries. We are not going to hit bottom and see a V-shaped recovery.
Meanwhile, Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan said it will be another three years before new household formation and housing starts pick up. Duncan believes home prices will fall another 1 percent to 3 percent before bottoming out in the third quarter.
Both Humphries and Duncan said the federal home buyer tax credits shifted demand so that buyers took action earlier than they would have otherwise. We're going to see a payback in July and August, noted Humphries.