TrimTabs Investment Research estimated today that the U.S. economy shed 745,000 jobs in April (20,000 more than their March job loss estimates) as wages and salaries plunged an adjusted 5.7% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed a record 5 million jobs in the past 12 months.
If job losses continue at the present rate, the unemployment rate could top 10% by summer, said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman.
In a research note, TrimTabs reported that income tax refunds are up 16.5% year-over-year this year, providing a short-term boost to consumption. Unfortunately for the economy, however, the support from refunds is winding down.
Moreover, TrimTabs explained that President Obama's Making Work Pay tax credit is too small to help the economy over the longer term.
The Obama tax credit will distribute $20 billion to consumers from May through July, said Biderman. This amount is less than one-quarter of the $90 billion the Bush tax credit pumped into consumers' pocketbooks in the same period last year.
Finally, TrimTabs reported that real-time income tax data indicates that the personal savings rate was 1.6% in March, well below the 4.2% estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.