Roger Baettig

  • 30/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment

    In a similar reaction of what has happened after the release of June Japanese CPI, USDJPY has got back down after the release of July CPI figure which rose by the fastest pace since 2008 by 0.7% y/y while it was expected to be by 0.6% from 0.4% in June which was the first positive rate since April 2012 showing positive results of BOJ abenomics and no need of further cheap liquidity injection into the Japanese economy for fighting deflation while this figure can open the door for more talking about imposing higher sales taxes after it looked getting cooled recently.
  • Crude Oil

    Exploring for Oil in Nicaragua: Friends in High Places

    On 17 July, Nicaragua announced that US-based Noble Energy would invest $30 million in drilling two offshore wells in the Caribbean—launching Nicaragua's first-ever oil exploration. The wells will be drilled in the Tyra and Isabel blocks, which have undergone nearly 5,000 kilometers of seismic surveying since 2011. But Nicaragua's first exploration will not go off without a hitch—namely, the revival of a nasty territorial dispute with Colombia, and another with Costa Rica.
  • Precious Metals & Miners Flash Short-Sell Signal

    It has been a bumpy ride for precious metal investors over the past couple of years and it unfortunately I do not think its over just yet. The good news is that the bottom has likely been put in for gold, silver and gold miners BUT the recent rally in these metals and miner looks to be coming to an end. While we could see another pop in price over the next week or so the price, volume and momentum see to be stalling out. What does this mean? It means we should expect short term weakness and lower prices over the next month or two.
  • Another Chance Coming to Buy Mining Stocks

    Last week we wrote: “Technically, the gold stocks continue to follow a typical post-bottom rebound path and look very strong. The daily RSI of GDX is at a 10-month high as GDX consolidates around $30. We’d love to see GDX consolidate for a few weeks but it may break above $31 within days.” On Monday and Tuesday GDX traded up to $31 but failed to close above it. Tuesday we saw a nasty bearish reversal which confirms that GDX over the very short-term will correct and consolidate its gains. This is good news as it will alleviate the overbought condition and put the market in position to launch a sustainable breakout around the end of September.
  • Turbulence in a Changing World as Gold-loving Asia Rises

    In 2013 we have seen, so far a massive bear raid on the gold market in the U.S. led by the big banks, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, who along with their clients engineered the price of gold down, first with massive short positions on COMEX added to by selling over 200 tonnes of the physical stock of gold they held. This added to the persistent selling from the SPDR gold ETF which saw well over 400 tonnes of gold sold from it and a fall of 200 tonnes out of COMEX warehouses. The total was close to 1000 tonnes of gold.
  • Crude Oil

    Time for Investors to Hunker Down

    It's time to step out from my 'normal' role as the 'energy expert' and make a comment or two on the markets in general, just as a professionatrader who's seen quite a bit in his almost 3 decades of daily experience with capital markets and the way they act. Patterns emerge that aren't foolproof, but they've served well over the years and they are making some very visceral noises to me, even observing the action at longer range on vacation.
  • Currencies

    22/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment

    After last week release of US jobless claim raised the expectations of having tapering of the Fed’s QE next month, yesterday minutes of the last Fed’s meeting have brought back the dependency on the economic improvement as it has left the door opened for everything.
  • Gold Bars Getty

    Is India preparing to ‘Confiscate’ its Citizens’ Gold?

    In 1991, the Indian government pledged the nation’s gold reserves against foreign loans that were provided to the nation from international sources. So they have already trodden the path of using gold to support their international presence and in international dealings.
  • Will the S&P 500 Impact Gold Stocks?

    With recoveries come questions. Will this last? Is this just setting up a bigger decline? The current recovery in the gold stocks has been both strong and broad based. It has occurred at a time when the stock market seems vulnerable. The stock market is up substantially since 2009. Yet, the most recent gains have resulted almost entirely from margin expansion rather than profit growth. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth is the lowest ever (ex recessions). Gold stocks are up 16.8% in the last 13 days while the S&P 500 has declined by 3.4%. Should gold stock investors and speculators worry about the effect of a deeper decline or cyclical bear market on the mining sector? History says no.
  • What Happens When You Tell Indians to Stop Buying Gold

    India’s demand for gold during the second quarter of 2013 topped all other countries, according to the latest World Gold Council data. As noted by GoldCore, the demand for gold in India rose to its “highest in the last 10 years,” with jewelry, bars and coins demand, capping 310 tons during the period.
  • Will 1,650 Offer Buying Support for the SP500?

    In my most recent article, I discussed how I was expecting U.S. financial markets to reverse to the downside in the near future. I illustrated the various divergences in a variety of underlying technical indicators which have issued warnings in the past.
  • HANDOUT PICTURE - of famed 1933 Double Eagle $20 gold coin to be auctioned on behalf of the U.S go..

    Will China Confiscate its Citizen’s Gold?

    At one point we thought we were alone in believing that eventually we would see a confiscation of citizen’s gold in one or more countries. Then we saw the confiscation of deposits in Cyprus in line with a “bail-in” policy. While this was a banking measure in line with the normal liquidation of a company, it was endorsed by most nations thereafter. The greatest impact was seen on investors worldwide who had never thought that such events would happen.
  • Gold Stocks are Leaving the Station

    All aboard and back up the truck. The recovery train is soon to leave the station for higher prices! Obviously, the ideal time for that would have been at the exact bottom. Hours before that bottom we penned an article titled, Epic Opportunity in Gold Stocks. A number of factors came together making a near bulletproof case for a major bottom. Bulletproof is a dangerous word to use and especially for someone (cough, me!) who had anticipated a huge rebound as early as the spring. Last week we used that term again because the gold stocks were only correcting and consolidating which is a typical of a post-bottom rebound. The precious metals complex looked weak to start last week but reversed course to form not only a bullish weekly reversal but the first higher low since the major bottom. Our technical work and historical analysis strongly argue that it’s only a matter of time before this sector begins the next move higher.
  • currencies

    13/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment

    The release of Q2 GDP of Japan could contain the current market sentiment to encourage the traders to wait for a bottom again of USDJPY to restart buying it. USDJPY has broken its previous resistance at 96.95 easily by the Japanese session. After inability of the Japanese yen to press on the greenback to get down below 96 several times recently.
  • The US$ Outperforms Gold, Silver and the HUI so far in 2013

    The chart below paints a sorry picture for precious bugs with the US dollar just managing to stay in positive territory as losses mount for gold, silver and the mining sector. In broad terms the US Dollar is up 2%, Gold is down 22%, Silver is down 32% and the miners represented here by the HUI are down 45%. All stomach churning stuff for perma bulls as the mining sector now has to generate gains of around 100% in order to get back to where they were at the start of the year. This is not impossible but it will take a monumental effort to achieve such a recovery.
  • US Economy

    3 Reasons to Fear the Fall

    I generally shy away from making time-specific economic and stock market predictions simply because they are extremely difficult to accurately pinpoint. During 2006 I warned about a coming real estate collapse that would cause a severe recession in 2007. Back in January of 2009, I urged investors to start buying the stock market because I felt the majority of the selling was behind us. In general, making such predictions is a dangerous game and should be avoided in most cases because odds are very low you’ll be correct on both the prediction and the timing.
  • The SP 500 Enters Major Correction Period

    The SP 500 has been on a tear since late 2012 with the SP 500 bottoming at 1266. The rally though we have been charting out as part of a “Primary wave 3″ uptrend for this Bull market cycle from March 2009, and we are likely entering a Major correction or what we would label “Major wave 4″. Since the 1266 lows, we have had Major Wave 1, 2, and now 3 completed at 1710. We are entering Major wave 4 which should correct 23-38% of the entirety of Major wave 3, which was 444 points.
  • economy

    Second Half Recovery Predictions Fail Again

    Each of the last five years Wall Street pundits have predicted, and our government has promised, that a second half recovery in the economy will occur. Since 2009, they have come up with different reasons why GDP would boom in Q3 & Q4 of that year; and that this time a different and better outcome is in store. This year, the reason we are supposed to believe in a second half recovery is because the damage from the Sequester cuts will wear off starting in…drum roll…July.
  • FUTURES MARKETS SIGNAL GOLD READY TO ERUPT

    With gold recouping some losses in its most recent trading sessions, many are asking whether or not the bottom has finally formed for the yellow metal. Most of these gains have been simply chalked up to short-covering and dovish remarks by Bernanke during the recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings; however, there are some key indicators for gold which are overshadowed by the media hubbub. Two of them in particular are important to understand, because they reveal a renewed investment demand for physical gold over paper gold or fiat currencies.
  • Exxon Mobil Corp.

    New Pipeline Safety Technology Could Bring Industry and Environment Together

    The 2010 Kalamazoo spill and the 2013 Exxon leak in Arkansas are the most glaring incidents, but these are just the big leaks that are found right away and reported.

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