Articles by Roger Baettig
Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD
May 17 2013 2:27 PM
• USD soared against a basket of currencies on prospects of bond-buying slowdown • Euro remains at a 6-week low on prospects of negative deposit rates • Commodities remains under pressure with a slowdown in global growth
Strong Dollar Weighs on Brent Prices
May 17 2013 8:03 AM
A strong dollar and demand worries kept Brent under pressure on Friday morning after news that the US Federal Reserve may end its monetary stimulus lifted the greenback. Brent is poised to end the week with little change and traded at $104.15 at 9:41 GMT on Friday morning. CNBC reported that three Federal Reserve officials were calling for an end to the US central bank's monetary stimulus program. The news strengthened the dollar and made oil more expensive to holders of other currencies. Moving forward, most will be watching for major changes in the dollar, as the greenback is expected to drive oil prices in the short term.
Eurozone Reports Increased Trade Surplus
May 17 2013 7:59 AM
The euro traded steadily at $1.28 on Friday morning after data on Thursday showed that the region's March trade surplus was at its highest level since 1999, when the eurozone was created. The Wall Street Journal reported that the eurozone's trade surplus increased during the first three months of 2013, which indicates that weak internal demand was responsible for the weak GDP figures reported on Wednesday. During the fourth quarter, the economy shrank by 0.2 percent, which translates to an annualized contraction of 0.9 percent.
Four Things Einhorn, Soros Are Forgetting About Gold Miners ETF
May 17 2013 7:52 AM
Highlighting fourth-quarter 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, it was noted hedge fund legends David Einhorn and George Soros held sizable stakes in the largest gold miners ETF, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]). To be fair to Soros, during the fourth quarter, he pared his stakes in GDX and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) by 800,000 and 400,000 shares, but he still owned 1.5 million shares of GDX and about two million shares of GDXJ at the end of the quarter.
Gold Demand Remains Strong As Buying Records Continue To Tumble
May 16 2013 8:06 AM
There are no surprises in the latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report other than the fact that statistics show global demand for gold in Q1 2013 was on the increase before the COMEX raid on April 15th. This is a clear indication that the fundamentals supporting a strong price for gold in the long term remain and also helps to explain why there was such a shortage of gold bars and coins in the weeks after April 15th.
Oil prices starting the day in negative territory
May 16 2013 7:55 AM
Oil prices continued their decline for the sixth trading session (basis WTI) in row as the current fundamentals point to lower prices. The market remains focused on projections for lower oil demand growth, robust supply and building inventories. Yesterday total crude oil and refined product inventories built again in the US by 2.6 million barrels (see below for a more detailed discussion on this week's inventory report). Further adding to the concern in the market has been macroeconomic data that continues to suggest that the global economy is faltering. Yesterday GDP data out of Europe showed France now moving into recession with the overall EU recession deepening a tad last quarter.
Nat Gas steady ahead of EIA inventory report
May 16 2013 7:49 AM
Nat Gas futures remain in a short term upward move with the spot contract now remaining above the key $4/mmbtu for the third day in a row. As I have been discussing in detail in the newsletter I view the current move above the $4/mmbtu to be primarily technically driven as the current fundamentals have not changed and are neutral at best. The spot contract is now in a $4 to $4.16/mmbtu trading range. Whether or not the market is going to be able to remain in this range and even move above it will be very dependent on what is in store with the upcoming summer cooling season (yet to get underway).
Brent Nears $103 on Falling Stockpiles
May 16 2013 7:44 AM
Brent crude oil slid toward $103 on Thursday following an unexpected drop in US factory output. The data added to uncertainty about future demand and brought Brent prices down to $103.14 at 9:20 GMT on Thursday morning. A steep drop in US factory output caused concern among investors who worried about the state of the global economy. Many attributed the lack of demand for exports to the ongoing eurozone recession and sluggish growth in China.
Eurozone GDP Puts Euro Under Pressure
May 16 2013 7:40 AM
The euro remained under pressure on Thursday after weak GDP data was released Wednesday. The figures indicated that the European Central Bank's prediction of growth in the second half of 2013 is looking less and less likely. With poor data on the table, the ECB is likely to remind markets of their plan to cut deposit rates if need be.
Is the Fed is sticking to its policy or stuck in it?
May 16 2013 7:27 AM
You can find now the optimism of having a closer ending of the Fed’s QE at the price of gold which is traded below 1400$ no per ounce after it had been well buoyed following the credit crisis because of that policy which is still underpinning the assets prices in US and you can see that also at the current unprecedented prices in US equities market which pushed up the risk appetite in Europe and Asia too while the treasuries are still also well-supported watching markedly falling of its yields since the worries about the US labor market has increased with the release of March labor report which suggested continued support by the Fed to it and this stance has not changed even after April report which came better than expected.
Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD
May 15 2013 1:28 PM
• Euros falls to a 6-week low due to a contraction in GDP • Sterling strengthens after the release of the Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE • USD climbs despite mixed US data output
Gold Prices Continue to Fall
May 15 2013 12:24 PM
Gold is still in trouble as it continues to fall. This morning gold prices are down $12.61 to $1,413.60 an ounce sparking investors to worry that the downward trend will continue.