Articles by Roger Baettig
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Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDMay 21 2013 1:51 PM
• USD rallies on prospects the Fed may scale back on bond buying • Sterling at a 7-week low with weak British output • Antipodean currencies recover from 11 and 6-month lows.
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A Dead Cat Bounce for Gold PricesMay 21 2013 7:44 AM
On Monday, May 13, 2013 we wrote that Gold Prices would Re-Test $1350/oz level and so they did, trading sub $1340/0z at one stage. Gold had fallen for 7 straight days from $1470/oz before the slide was arrested earlier today with a bounce that pushed gold up to $1391/oz. This move correlates inversely with the 7 day winning streak put in by the US$, which also came to an abrupt halt today when it fell 0.50% to close at 83.93 on the US$ Index. As far as we can ascertain there was a few frantic minutes of buying that moved gold higher by around $30.00. Such quick movement suggests that someone who was short wanted to close and close quickly, as gold was climbing slowly but surely at the time. The snap shot below depicts the day’s action:
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Finding Opportunity Far and NearMay 20 2013 4:13 PM
Samuel Johnson once said, “The use of traveling is to regulate imagination by reality, and instead of thinking how things may be, to see them as they are.” Although penned by an 18th century English writer, the idea holds true in today’s highly connected world of search bars, tweets and breaking news. Our portfolio managers’ research trips to foreign countries authenticates the data from a Bloomberg terminal or an earnings report.
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Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and RMBMay 20 2013 1:18 PM
• JPY strengthened for the first time in 3 weeks • U.K. raises home asking prices for the 5th straight month • Aussie and kiwi regains strength ahead of key central bank release on Tuesday
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Yahoo Jumping on the Startup Acquisition BandwagonMay 20 2013 1:12 PM
AOL Inc.(NYSE: AOL [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) has Huffington Post. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) has YouTube. Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) has Instagram. And now, Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is getting a startup of its own as well. The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Yahoo’s board approved $1.1 billion to acquire Tumblr. Acquisition of the popular blogging and social networking site is Yahoo CEO, Marissa Mayer’s biggest deal since taking over at Yahoo in 2012. It is seen as an image upgrade for an Internet company that has lost some luster in recent years.
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Brent Steady Near $105 Ahead of FED Minutes May 20 2013 9:03 AM
Brent crude oil traded steadily at $104.62 on Monday morning at 5:58 GMT as the commodity inched towards $105 on improving economic data and strong equity markets. However, a tepid demand outlook and market oversupply kept a lid on prices. Last week, the International Energy Agency forecast both waning oil demand growth and increasing supply which put pressure on Brent prices. At the moment, the markets are well supplied; and with most of the world's largest consumers struggling to kick start their economies, crude demand has shown no signs of improvement.
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Euro Set For Another Week of Disappointing DataMay 20 2013 8:59 AM
After last week's GDP data spelled disappointment for the eurozone, the common currency seems poised for another week of pressure as more economic indicators are set to be released in the coming days. The region's GDP data showed that France had joined the ranks of its southern peers and posted a contraction, while German data showed weak growth.
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Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDMay 17 2013 2:27 PM
• USD soared against a basket of currencies on prospects of bond-buying slowdown • Euro remains at a 6-week low on prospects of negative deposit rates • Commodities remains under pressure with a slowdown in global growth
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Strong Dollar Weighs on Brent PricesMay 17 2013 8:03 AM
A strong dollar and demand worries kept Brent under pressure on Friday morning after news that the US Federal Reserve may end its monetary stimulus lifted the greenback. Brent is poised to end the week with little change and traded at $104.15 at 9:41 GMT on Friday morning. CNBC reported that three Federal Reserve officials were calling for an end to the US central bank's monetary stimulus program. The news strengthened the dollar and made oil more expensive to holders of other currencies. Moving forward, most will be watching for major changes in the dollar, as the greenback is expected to drive oil prices in the short term.
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Eurozone Reports Increased Trade SurplusMay 17 2013 7:59 AM
The euro traded steadily at $1.28 on Friday morning after data on Thursday showed that the region's March trade surplus was at its highest level since 1999, when the eurozone was created. The Wall Street Journal reported that the eurozone's trade surplus increased during the first three months of 2013, which indicates that weak internal demand was responsible for the weak GDP figures reported on Wednesday. During the fourth quarter, the economy shrank by 0.2 percent, which translates to an annualized contraction of 0.9 percent.
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Four Things Einhorn, Soros Are Forgetting About Gold Miners ETFMay 17 2013 7:52 AM
Highlighting fourth-quarter 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, it was noted hedge fund legends David Einhorn and George Soros held sizable stakes in the largest gold miners ETF, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]). To be fair to Soros, during the fourth quarter, he pared his stakes in GDX and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) by 800,000 and 400,000 shares, but he still owned 1.5 million shares of GDX and about two million shares of GDXJ at the end of the quarter.
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Gold Demand Remains Strong As Buying Records Continue To TumbleMay 16 2013 8:06 AM
There are no surprises in the latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report other than the fact that statistics show global demand for gold in Q1 2013 was on the increase before the COMEX raid on April 15th. This is a clear indication that the fundamentals supporting a strong price for gold in the long term remain and also helps to explain why there was such a shortage of gold bars and coins in the weeks after April 15th.
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