Articles by Roger Baettig

  • What Happens When You Tell Indians to Stop Buying GoldWhat Happens When You Tell Indians to Stop Buying Gold

    August 20 2013 12:41 PM

    India’s demand for gold during the second quarter of 2013 topped all other countries, according to the latest World Gold Council data. As noted by GoldCore, the demand for gold in India rose to its “highest in the last 10 years,” with jewelry, bars and coins demand, capping 310 tons during the period.

  •  NG prices holding in new trading range NG prices holding in new trading range

    August 20 2013 10:05 AM

    Nat Gas futures are trading either side of the unchanged level as trading just gets underway in the US. The spot contract broke out of its trading channel to the upside yesterday and so far has remained above the old resistance or now new support level of $3.415/mmbtu. The next resistance level is around the $3.56/mmbtu area. Yesterday's breakout was a combination of supportive short term weather forecasts along with technical buying.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    August 16 2013 1:07 PM

    USD slightly rebounds from yesterday’s losses - EUR is lower despite stronger growth numbers from Germany and France - Commodity Currencies are stronger amid higher demand for gold and metals

  • Will 1,650 Offer Buying Support for the SP500?Will 1,650 Offer Buying Support for the SP500?

    August 16 2013 10:20 AM

    In my most recent article, I discussed how I was expecting U.S. financial markets to reverse to the downside in the near future. I illustrated the various divergences in a variety of underlying technical indicators which have issued warnings in the past.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    August 15 2013 12:36 PM

    USD is mixed after better US jobs data increased bets the Fed will cut its stimulus next month - GBP hits 2-month high on better-than-expected retail sales data - Commodity-linked New Zealand dollar climbed on expectations the RBNZ will raise interest rates

  •  Oil prices firm on supply concerns Oil prices firm on supply concerns

    August 15 2013 8:14 AM

    The supply side of the equation continues to dominate the oil market sentiment. The issues in Libya and Egypt in particular have dominated the media air waves and thus the market sentiment of oil market participants. Libyan production has been mostly shut in for an extended period of time as strikes continue at the export terminals. As such there have been no exports from a country that desperately needs the revenue stream.

  • Will China Confiscate its Citizen’s Gold?Will China Confiscate its Citizen’s Gold?

    August 15 2013 7:45 AM

    At one point we thought we were alone in believing that eventually we would see a confiscation of citizen’s gold in one or more countries. Then we saw the confiscation of deposits in Cyprus in line with a “bail-in” policy. While this was a banking measure in line with the normal liquidation of a company, it was endorsed by most nations thereafter. The greatest impact was seen on investors worldwide who had never thought that such events would happen.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    August 14 2013 12:47 PM

    USD broadly weaker as producer prices held steady - EUR flat despite first positive GDP reading in six quarters - GBP stronger on robust unemployment data and additional guidance from BoE

  •  Oil prices lower on bearish inventory report Oil prices lower on bearish inventory report

    August 14 2013 8:15 AM

    The main economic news item of the day (so far) is the EU is now officially out of recession. The data showed that the EU exited recession in Q2 led by Germany and France. Q2 GDP in the 17 nation euro area expanded by 0.3 percent after contracting by 0.3 percent the previous quarter. The latest GDP came in better than the 0.2 percent market consensus. Compared to a year earlier the economy contracted by 0.7 percent.

  • Gold Stocks are Leaving the StationGold Stocks are Leaving the Station

    August 13 2013 4:17 PM

    All aboard and back up the truck. The recovery train is soon to leave the station for higher prices! Obviously, the ideal time for that would have been at the exact bottom. Hours before that bottom we penned an article titled, Epic Opportunity in Gold Stocks. A number of factors came together making a near bulletproof case for a major bottom. Bulletproof is a dangerous word to use and especially for someone (cough, me!) who had anticipated a huge rebound as early as the spring. Last week we used that term again because the gold stocks were only correcting and consolidating which is a typical of a post-bottom rebound. The precious metals complex looked weak to start last week but reversed course to form not only a bullish weekly reversal but the first higher low since the major bottom. Our technical work and historical analysis strongly argue that it’s only a matter of time before this sector begins the next move higher.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    August 13 2013 12:29 PM

    USD broadly stronger on bullish consumer spending data - EUR weaker despite better-than-expected German ZEW report - Commodity currencies weaker, Aussie dips on poor data and low consumer confidence

  • 13/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment13/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment

    August 13 2013 8:33 AM

    The release of Q2 GDP of Japan could contain the current market sentiment to encourage the traders to wait for a bottom again of USDJPY to restart buying it. USDJPY has broken its previous resistance at 96.95 easily by the Japanese session. After inability of the Japanese yen to press on the greenback to get down below 96 several times recently.

  • The US$ Outperforms Gold, Silver and the HUI so far in 2013The US$ Outperforms Gold, Silver and the HUI so far in 2013

    August 13 2013 8:21 AM

    The chart below paints a sorry picture for precious bugs with the US dollar just managing to stay in positive territory as losses mount for gold, silver and the mining sector. In broad terms the US Dollar is up 2%, Gold is down 22%, Silver is down 32% and the miners represented here by the HUI are down 45%. All stomach churning stuff for perma bulls as the mining sector now has to generate gains of around 100% in order to get back to where they were at the start of the year. This is not impossible but it will take a monumental effort to achieve such a recovery.

  • 3 Reasons to Fear the Fall3 Reasons to Fear the Fall

    August 12 2013 11:37 AM

    I generally shy away from making time-specific economic and stock market predictions simply because they are extremely difficult to accurately pinpoint. During 2006 I warned about a coming real estate collapse that would cause a severe recession in 2007. Back in January of 2009, I urged investors to start buying the stock market because I felt the majority of the selling was behind us. In general, making such predictions is a dangerous game and should be avoided in most cases because odds are very low you’ll be correct on both the prediction and the timing.

  •  Oil prices mostly higher Oil prices mostly higher

    August 12 2013 11:29 AM

    Most of the commodities in the oil complex are starting the week with a small gain (so far) as market participants are looking at more positive economic signs coming from the developed world economies. Japan Q2 GDP expanded by 2.6 percent an improvement but still below the market consensus. The US economy is growing slowly but at a steady pace and many are expecting data this week to show that the EU recession may finally be over. An article in the Wall Street Journal this morning highlights that for the first time since the start of the global financial crisis the advanced global economies… including Japan are contributing more to growth than the emerging market countries.

  • The SP 500 Enters Major Correction PeriodThe SP 500 Enters Major Correction Period

    August 12 2013 11:21 AM

    The SP 500 has been on a tear since late 2012 with the SP 500 bottoming at 1266. The rally though we have been charting out as part of a “Primary wave 3″ uptrend for this Bull market cycle from March 2009, and we are likely entering a Major correction or what we would label “Major wave 4″. Since the 1266 lows, we have had Major Wave 1, 2, and now 3 completed at 1710. We are entering Major wave 4 which should correct 23-38% of the entirety of Major wave 3, which was 444 points.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    August 09 2013 12:50 PM

    USD rebounded against most major currencies despite a fall in wholesale data - EUR weakened but trades near 2-month highs - Commodity currencies ended higher after a second day of upbeat Chinese data

  • Second Half Recovery Predictions Fail AgainSecond Half Recovery Predictions Fail Again

    August 09 2013 10:37 AM

    Each of the last five years Wall Street pundits have predicted, and our government has promised, that a second half recovery in the economy will occur. Since 2009, they have come up with different reasons why GDP would boom in Q3 & Q4 of that year; and that this time a different and better outcome is in store. This year, the reason we are supposed to believe in a second half recovery is because the damage from the Sequester cuts will wear off starting in…drum roll…July.

  •  Oil prices higher after China data Oil prices higher after China data

    August 09 2013 10:31 AM

    The downside correction in oil prices continued with increased momentum on Thursday as market participants did not react much to the latest positive Chinese data as overall concerns about global oil consumption growth as well as the potential end to the stimulus program (QE3) in the US brought out the sellers. In addition the weekly inventory snapshot was biased to the bearish side as I discussed in yesterday's newsletter. The market have been in the midst of a downside correction that has now been in place for the last five sessions.

  • FUTURES MARKETS SIGNAL GOLD READY TO ERUPTFUTURES MARKETS SIGNAL GOLD READY TO ERUPT

    August 09 2013 8:11 AM

    With gold recouping some losses in its most recent trading sessions, many are asking whether or not the bottom has finally formed for the yellow metal. Most of these gains have been simply chalked up to short-covering and dovish remarks by Bernanke during the recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings; however, there are some key indicators for gold which are overshadowed by the media hubbub. Two of them in particular are important to understand, because they reveal a renewed investment demand for physical gold over paper gold or fiat currencies.