Roger Baettig

  •  Oil prices drifting lower Oil prices drifting lower

    July 30 2013 8:41 AM

    The oil market is following the downward pattern established last week as market participants continue to be concerned over the slowing of the global economy and thus a potential decline in oil demand growth going forward. Most of the macroeconomic data over the last month or so have indicated that many of the high growth economies of the world are finally starting to slow. Chinese data along with actions by the government are clearly pointing to a slowing of the main economic and oil demand growth engine of the world. The combination of oil demand potentially slowing coupled with the ongoing success of US supply is resulting in the global oil balances likely to remain biased to the oversupply side of the equation for the medium term.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    July 29 2013 1:18 PM

    US calendar heavy this week with important data releases - JPY strengthens as Nikkei plunges 3.3% - Canadian dollar up as crude oil remains above $100 per barrel

  • Oil prices starting the week in positive territory Oil prices starting the week in positive territory

    July 29 2013 11:39 AM

    After falling modestly for the first week in over a month oil prices are starting the new trading week in positive territory for WTI with Brent showing a larger gain. Refined product prices are also modestly higher as of this writing. The market began to run out of its upside momentum early last week as participants have raised their concern on the prospect for a faltering demand picture going forward.

  • NG futures lower on bearish temp forecast NG futures lower on bearish temp forecast

    July 29 2013 11:30 AM

    Nat Gas futures have been under strong selling pressure since the markets began trading on Sunday night. The main selling catalyst today is the even more bearish short term temperature forecasts that hit the media airwaves over the weekend. As I have indicated on many occasions the weather is the primary price driver for the Nat Gas complex with the weather now making another decided turn toward the bearish side.

  • The Chart that Signaled the Bottom in Gold Stocks

    July 26 2013 2:02 PM

    Some readers may be sick of seeing this chart but I believe there is no more important chart when assessing or describing the current market (in gold stocks). From a weekly price perspective the recent bear market labeled E finished down 65%. It was almost identical in trajectory, time and price to C, the 1968-1970 bear market and fairly close to D, the 1974-1976 bear market. Both of those bear markets were followed by tremendous advances which took the 1960-1980 secular bull market to new all-time highs. Simply put, by itself this almost bulletproof evidence of a major bottom and likelihood of major gains directly ahead.

  • 6 Key Oil & Gas Discoveries of 2013 – Who's Worth Owning

    July 26 2013 1:57 PM

    The pace of oil and gas exploration is frightening, and discoveries are weekly, if not daily, with volumes investors would only have dreamt of a decade ago. With each new discovery, it becomes difficult to keep track of the playing field, and even more difficult to rank the potential. There are also a lot of juniors popping up on the scene now, exploring, finding and developing with the intent to lure the bigger players to buy them out. So we'll make it easy for you here, with our list of 6 key oil and gas discoveries so far this year, followed by a short list of the companies we think have the best potential—and they're not necessarily the ones who have made the biggest discoveries.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    July 26 2013 1:47 PM

    USD is broadly lower ahead of the Fed’s two-day meeting next week - JPY surges on better-than-expected national CPI data - Commodity currencies are flat but remain under pressure as oil prices weaken

  • The currency crisis and protectionThe currency crisis and protection

    July 25 2013 3:01 PM

    While the roots of crisis are embedded, the ways to avoid and be insulated from their results is entirely within the power of the individual.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    July 25 2013 12:08 PM

    USD mixed as initial jobless claims rise - GBP weakens despite meeting growth expectations in Q2 - Commodity currencies are stronger despite lower oil and copper prices

  • Why are the Gold, Silver Prices Rising?

    July 25 2013 10:46 AM

    Gold and silver recently hit their lows –$1,180 for gold and $18.50 for silver—after being hit by tremendous persistent selling from the SPDR gold ETF and then a major, well-engineered bear raid from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase alongside several hedge funds. This entailed the selling of over 1,000 tonnes of physical gold in less than three months. The bear-raid in mid-April involved around 500 tonnes of this. In a market where the net supply is just over 10 tonnes a day, this wave of selling overwhelmed demand, initially and caused the precipitous fall in gold and silver prices.

  • Piggybacking on the Hunt For Massive Oil Discoveries: Interview with AOSPiggybacking on the Hunt For Massive Oil Discoveries: Interview with AOS

    July 24 2013 2:15 PM

    Africa is becoming the top choice for North American oil companies looking to diversify, and the East African Rift is the hottest of the hot, with Kenya waiting on commercial viability, Angola and Ghana already on the road to rival Nigeria and two newcomers—Namibia and Zambia—where the doors have been thrown open for exploration. Getting in on Namibia and Zambia is an extremely expensive endeavour, but here's a way to de-risk this adventure, keep your shareholders calm and strategically position yourself to take advantage of the next big find without footing the massive drilling bill: Buy up a ton of acreage and sit back and let others do the expensive exploration and drilling on territory adjacent to yours. Then strike and watch offers come in.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    July 24 2013 2:04 PM

    USD broadly stronger on better-than-expected housing data - EUR stronger on better-than-expected PMI data - Commodity currencies are slightly lower after the release of weaker PMI in June

  •  Oil weaker after China PMI data Oil weaker after China PMI data

    July 24 2013 8:40 AM

    Oil prices are mixed in overnight trading after a supportive API oil inventory report that has been offset by yet another sign that the main economic and oil demand growth engine of the world… China is slowing. The latest manufacturing data out of China weakened more than expected for July. The HSBC/Markit reading came in at 47.7 or solidly below the expansion threshold of 50. The PMI data is an energy sensitive Index and with China in the contraction mode it certainly suggests that oil demand growth out of China is likely to be less than has been forecast so far.

  •  NG futures drifting lower in early trading NG futures drifting lower in early trading

    July 24 2013 8:33 AM

    With the market focusing on tomorrow's EIA inventory injection report prices rallied modestly on Tuesday only to retrace slightly in overnight trading so far. The market is mostly focused on what is likely to be an underperformance in the weekly injection level (see below for a more a detailed discussion) while somewhat discounting the less than supportive short term weather forecasts. Although the injection level this week is likely to be below the so called normal five year average for the same week it will still come in well above last year resulting in the year over year deficit narrowing one again.

  • Brent Slips on Chinese PMIBrent Slips on Chinese PMI

    July 24 2013 8:14 AM

    Brent crude oil was under pressure on Wednesday after Chinese PMI data revealed that the number two oil consuming nation's economy could be slipping.

  • Challenging a Long-Held Assumption about Commodities

    July 23 2013 3:14 PM

    There’s no denying China’s massive economic growth over the past decade, as the country recorded an average GDP of more than 10 percent per year. In only seven years, China’s economy doubled; in 13 years, it tripled.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    July 23 2013 12:27 PM

    USD is slightly weaker after lower-than-expected domestic reports - EUR stronger as consumer confidence reaches highest level in almost 2 years - Commodity Currencies held firm as Canada reports higher retail sales and China implements reforms to boost growth

  • Defining currency risk and finding ways to minimize itDefining currency risk and finding ways to minimize it

    July 22 2013 5:12 PM

    Currency risk is based on currency fluctuations of one currency as against another.

  • CFTC decides on landmark case

    July 22 2013 4:55 PM

    CFTC releases a decision penalizing Panther Energy LLC for its illegal activities done through spoofing.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    July 22 2013 1:00 PM

    US new home sales at highest levels in years - Sterling strong on expectations of increasing GDP growth in second quarter - Japan elections give PM Abe majority