Articles by Roger Baettig
- South Africa Imports $1 Billion of Unwrought Gold to Meet Global Demand
May 15 2013 8:47 AM
On Tuesday 14th May, workers at Lonmin PLC, the world’s No. 3 platinum producer in South Africa began a wildcat strike. This caused immediate disruption of all mine production and led to concerns that South Africa was yet again to endure violence and disruption in its mining industry.
- Nat Gas futures still above $4/mmbtu level
May 15 2013 8:31 AM
For the first time in well over a week the spot Nat Gas contract was able to settle above the key $4/mmbtu technical resistance area. The market has been in the midst of a short covering rally since trading began on Monday. The majority of the upside move and breaching of the $4/mmbtu is mostly driven by a technical move as the overall fundamentals have not changed all that much over the last week or so. Technically the spot futures contract is now in a new higher trading range of $4/mmbtu on the support side and $4.16/mmbtu as the upper resistance level. I am still of the view that the market will need fundamentals support to sustain a move to the upside from current levels.
- Frances falls into recession
May 15 2013 8:27 AM
The growing market concern over the weakening oil fundamental picture is continuing to pressure oil prices with the complex declining for the fourth trading session in a row. The fact that the US dollar index was also strong yesterday contributed to the selling in the oil pits. The rally in equity markets… normally a positive driver for oil prices… was largely ignored with the strong US dollar and prospects for weaker demand turning out to be the main negative price drivers for the complex.
- Brent Slips as Supply Outpaces Demand
May 15 2013 8:20 AM
Brent crude oil slid toward $102 on Wednesday as rising supply and waning demand kept a lid on prices. The commodity traded at $102.22 at 7:47 GMT on Wednesday morning. The Wall Street Journal reported that a figures from the International Energy Agency on Tuesday showed that output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased to 30.7 million barrels per day from 200,000 bpd. According to the IEA, that exceeds the world's needs by about 1.8 million barrels.
- ZEW Results Weigh on Euro
May 15 2013 8:16 AM
The euro tumbled on Wednesday morning on disappointing figures from Germany and pessimistic forecasts for the region's economic data, due on later in the day. The common currency neared a one month low as it fell below $1.29 and traded at $2.2894 on Wednesday morning.
- Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD
May 14 2013 1:26 PM
• JPY hits new highs after plunging to its lowest level in over 4 years • USD remains strong with the fall of import prices • AUD remains under pressure with the release of the RBA’s budget plan
- European Union Likely to ‘Bail In’ Large Depositors
May 14 2013 9:07 AM
The European Union will today meet to discuss and move forward the proposal to ‘bail-in’ depositors with savings of over €100,000 as part of future bank wind-downs. It now looks likely that the EU is going to take unprecedented steps to sequester monies from its citizens in the event of future bank failures.
- Oil prices still on defensive
May 14 2013 8:54 AM
Oil prices are drifting lowering in overnight trading as the bearish fundamental outlook continues to weigh on prices. Both Brent and WTI have declined for the last several trading sessions with both now back into a new lower trading range. Although the IEA did not lower its oil demand forecast (see below for the highlights from today's report) it did paint a bearish picture on the supply side indicating that the market is biased to the oversupplied side of the equation. The short to medium term fundamental outlook remains the same… oil demand is faltering, supply is robust and growing and US crude oil inventories are at the highest level since the 1930's.
- Brent Steadies on Hopes of US Recovery
May 14 2013 8:48 AM
Brent crude oil neared $103 on Tuesday as hopes that the US economy was getting back on track countered the commodity's losses due to waning demand. Brent traded steadily at $102.92 at 6:12 GMT on Tuesday morning. The commodity suffered losses on Monday after Chinese refineries dropped their processing to an eight month low. Businessweek reported that the nation's refining slipped to 9.36 million barrels per day, eight percent lower than December's record. China's apparent oil demand also fell to an 8 month low in April and reconfirmed concern about the nation's lack of recovery.
- EU Confidence Could Be the Financial Crisis' Worst Casualty
May 14 2013 8:44 AM
The euro faced pressure on Tuesday morning after a new survey showed fractures widening between member states as the region's financial crisis deepened. The common currency reached above $1.30 and traded at $1.3009 at 5:47 GMT on Monday. The Wall Street Journalreported that a poll by Pew Research Center showed that Europeans are losing faith in the European Union and distrust between member states is creating disillusionment throughout the region.
- Gold Prices to Re-Test $1350/oz
May 14 2013 8:25 AM
- How to Spot & Time Stock Market Tops
May 14 2013 8:19 AM
May 13th, 2013 at 7:34 pmSince the middle of April everyone and including their grandmother seems to have been building a short position in the equities market and we know picking tops or bottoms fighting the major underlying trend is risky business but most individuals cannot resist. The rush one gets trying to pick a major top or bottom is flat out exciting and that is what makes it so darn addicting and irresistible. If you have ever nailed a market top or bottom then you know just how much money can be made. That one big win naturally draws you back to keep doing it much like how a casino works. The chemicals released in the brain during these extremely exciting times are strong enough that even the most focused traders fall victim to breaking rules and trying these type of bets/trades. So if are going to try to pick a top you better be sure the charts and odds are leaning in your favor as much as possible before starting to build a position. Below are a few charts with my analysis and thoughts overlaid showing you some of the things I look at when thinking about a counter trend trade like picking a top within a bull market.