- Crude oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell by 390,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 31.15 million b/d in September, with Saudi Arabia and Nigeria accounting for the bulk of the month-on-month drop, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts showed October 11. This follows August production of 31.54 million b/d and leaves OPEC overproducing its 30 million b/d ceiling by 1.15 million b/d.
- Autochartist has recently identified the High Quality Flag chart pattern on the daily GBP/JPY charts. Autochartist rates the overall Quality of this Flag at the 8 bar level which is the consequence of the sharp Initial trend (rated at the maximum 10 bar level) as well as the above-average Uniformity (6 bars) and higher Clarity (8 bars).
- Last week was a rather quiet one with light economic calendar despite a number of meetings among policymakers. The EU and the Ecofin meetings held earlier in the week failed to add new ingredient to the sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone although the ESM was officially launched on Monday. World lenders, namely the World Bank and the IMF revised lower global economic forecasts for this year and 2013 as Chinese slowdown will probably be more serious than previously anticipated.
- The long idea last week did not work out. I thought EUR had already resumed its advance, but it fell to 1.2825 before ralling sharply at the end of the week. Now, there is a small sideways consolidation from the Sept top that looks like a Contracting Triangle. If correct, the prices should hold above 1.2825 this week and then should break to new highs - most likely twd 1.3195 Fibonacci level.
- GBP was under pressure for most of last week but still managed to hold above the important 1.5945 Fibonacci level. Thus, the wave count presented above still makes sense and suggests we will see one more (final?!) rally the 1.6386 Fibonacci level. A move above 1.6215 is needed to confirm this bullish outlook.
- No change from our last week's analysis. It seems USD/JPY is building a base here. Now, the key resistance can be lowered to 79.25 level. If the pair breaks above there, the bulls will likely have the upper hand. Of course, to confirm the trend change, a subsequent move above 79.65 and 80.60 will be required.
- Gold Fields Ltd. is valued at just over $9-B, it is one of the world’s top Gold companies. The Gold giant said that production for the September 2012 Quarter is now projected to be 810,000 Gold equivalent ounces, down from 862,000 oz in the June Quarter (sequentially) and down from about 900,000 oz in the September Quarter of Y 2011.