Roger Baettig

  • 30/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment

    In a similar reaction of what has happened after the release of June Japanese CPI, USDJPY has got back down after the release of July CPI figure which rose by the fastest pace since 2008 by 0.7% y/y while it was expected to be by 0.6% from 0.4% in June which was the first positive rate since April 2012 showing positive results of BOJ abenomics and no need of further cheap liquidity injection into the Japanese economy for fighting deflation while this figure can open the door for more talking about imposing higher sales taxes after it looked getting cooled recently.
  • Crude Oil

    Exploring for Oil in Nicaragua: Friends in High Places

    On 17 July, Nicaragua announced that US-based Noble Energy would invest $30 million in drilling two offshore wells in the Caribbean—launching Nicaragua's first-ever oil exploration. The wells will be drilled in the Tyra and Isabel blocks, which have undergone nearly 5,000 kilometers of seismic surveying since 2011. But Nicaragua's first exploration will not go off without a hitch—namely, the revival of a nasty territorial dispute with Colombia, and another with Costa Rica.
  • Norway currency

    Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    USD climbs on positive revised growth and jobless claims data - EUR dips on soft German unemployment data - Commodity currencies slid as markets caution imminent Western military action into Syria
  • Precious Metals & Miners Flash Short-Sell Signal

    It has been a bumpy ride for precious metal investors over the past couple of years and it unfortunately I do not think its over just yet. The good news is that the bottom has likely been put in for gold, silver and gold miners BUT the recent rally in these metals and miner looks to be coming to an end. While we could see another pop in price over the next week or so the price, volume and momentum see to be stalling out. What does this mean? It means we should expect short term weakness and lower prices over the next month or two.
  • Another Chance Coming to Buy Mining Stocks

    Last week we wrote: “Technically, the gold stocks continue to follow a typical post-bottom rebound path and look very strong. The daily RSI of GDX is at a 10-month high as GDX consolidates around $30. We’d love to see GDX consolidate for a few weeks but it may break above $31 within days.” On Monday and Tuesday GDX traded up to $31 but failed to close above it. Tuesday we saw a nasty bearish reversal which confirms that GDX over the very short-term will correct and consolidate its gains. This is good news as it will alleviate the overbought condition and put the market in position to launch a sustainable breakout around the end of September.
  • Turbulence in a Changing World as Gold-loving Asia Rises

    In 2013 we have seen, so far a massive bear raid on the gold market in the U.S. led by the big banks, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, who along with their clients engineered the price of gold down, first with massive short positions on COMEX added to by selling over 200 tonnes of the physical stock of gold they held. This added to the persistent selling from the SPDR gold ETF which saw well over 400 tonnes of gold sold from it and a fall of 200 tonnes out of COMEX warehouses. The total was close to 1000 tonnes of gold.
  • Crude Oil

    Time for Investors to Hunker Down

    It's time to step out from my 'normal' role as the 'energy expert' and make a comment or two on the markets in general, just as a professionatrader who's seen quite a bit in his almost 3 decades of daily experience with capital markets and the way they act. Patterns emerge that aren't foolproof, but they've served well over the years and they are making some very visceral noises to me, even observing the action at longer range on vacation.
  • US Dollars And Myanmar Kyats

    Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    USD under pressure as investors turn to safe-haven assets - Sterling drops ahead of the BoE’s announcement whether to keep interest rates low - Commodities weaker on uncertainty over Fed stimulus and increased tensions in Syria
  • Gold and silver bars are pictured at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna August 26, 2011.

    Lear Capital: When Gold and Silver Owners Got Rich

    As I watch the parade of anti-gold experts go past my screen during my early day’s viewing, one expert drew my ire. It was claimed that the existence of the gold standard, throughout history, has caused recession and depression. So, I decided to give myself a history lesson to find out what he could possibly have been referring to. Here’s what I came up with as one possible reference to his claim and an answer to my question: Was it the Gold Standard that brought on recession or was it adherence to the Gold Standard that saved the economy?
  • Euro bills Reuters 2

    Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    USD mixed against basket of currencies as durable goods declined - BOE Governor Mark Carney expected to announce rates to remain low - New Zealand trade deficit largest in 10 months (NZ$774 million)
  • US Dollar Currency

    Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    USD holds steady with the exception of the EUR - JPY breaks past its range and markets now eye a new level of 100 USD/JPY - Commodity currencies are weaker with NZD reaching its lowest in over 30 days
  • Oil prices firm in overnight trading

    Oil prices are in positive territory heading into the last trading session of the week with everything in the complex setting up for a negative week. Supply issues remain in the forefront as the main price catalyst for the complex with mostly positive macroeconomic news hitting the media airwaves. That said the US FOMC meeting minutes raised concern in the marketplace over an early tapering of the massive quantitative easing program currently in play in the US. Many interpreted the minutes as tapering could begin as early as next month. This view has permeated throughout the market sentiment since mid-week and has resulted in light selling in most risk asset markets.
  • Currencies

    Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    USD stronger as Fed minutes reaffirm market expectations of a September taper - EUR flat despite better-than-expected PMI data - Commodity currencies mixed as CAD plunges following weak retail sales data
  • Currencies

    22/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment

    After last week release of US jobless claim raised the expectations of having tapering of the Fed’s QE next month, yesterday minutes of the last Fed’s meeting have brought back the dependency on the economic improvement as it has left the door opened for everything.
  • Yen Dollar pic 2

    Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    USD broadly stronger as market awaits FOMC minutes - EUR weaker after hitting a 6-month high vs the dollar in yesterday’s session - Commodity currencies broadly weaker as emerging markets struggle
  • Crude Oil

    Oil prices drifting lower ahead of EIA report

    Oil prices are drifting lower ahead of this morning's EIA oil inventory report as well as this afternoon's release of the minutes from the last US Fed FOMC meeting. Last night's API report was mixed with draws in crude oil and gasoline and a build in distillate fuel (see below for more details). The market has been retracing this week in spite of the ongoing supply issues in Libya and now in Iraq. Yesterday the strikes in Libya ratcheted up once again with violence in one of the ports and moves to head off attempts by strikers to sell oil themselves at the largest crude oil terminal according to a report by Reuters. However, the Libyan oil ministry said yesterday that two terminals are ready to resume exports. A mixed picture coming from Libya but one that is still evolving.
  • Natural gas plant

    NG prices regaining its footing on warm weather

    Although the spot Nat Gas contract made a pass at the lower range support level in overnight trading the market has since reversed and is now higher on the session after failing to remain below the technical support level of $3.415/mmbtu. With the tropics completely uneventful and the nuclear power sector running at relatively normal levels the only upside price driver for the Nat Gas market will be the weather as the tail end of the summer evolves.
  • Gold Bars Getty

    Is India preparing to ‘Confiscate’ its Citizens’ Gold?

    In 1991, the Indian government pledged the nation’s gold reserves against foreign loans that were provided to the nation from international sources. So they have already trodden the path of using gold to support their international presence and in international dealings.
  • Will the S&P 500 Impact Gold Stocks?

    With recoveries come questions. Will this last? Is this just setting up a bigger decline? The current recovery in the gold stocks has been both strong and broad based. It has occurred at a time when the stock market seems vulnerable. The stock market is up substantially since 2009. Yet, the most recent gains have resulted almost entirely from margin expansion rather than profit growth. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth is the lowest ever (ex recessions). Gold stocks are up 16.8% in the last 13 days while the S&P 500 has declined by 3.4%. Should gold stock investors and speculators worry about the effect of a deeper decline or cyclical bear market on the mining sector? History says no.
  • Currencies

    Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    USD slid as safe-have flows favored JPY and CHF - EUR reaches 2-month high vs. USD - Commodity currencies weakened as global demand for higher yielding assets subside